Detailed Abstractions

Well.  It’s official.  Not only do we have an economic crisis, but now we have an economic debate crisis…. apparently that is.

Why is it so important?

Easy… because without being able to spend more money than we can realize in revenue through taxation, we’re all going to die.  Just look around, this theoretically historically unprecedented permanently damaging possibility is sure to end the Republic as we know it:

President who tells us our senior citizens and military members will not get paid….

Bernake warns of catostrophy…

For others, our national security is at stake…. in fact, Al Qaeda itself might attack just because of this!

& on and on….

 With all of that looming, it’s not wonder someone has to be at fault….

There are alternative answers to defaulting itself, for instance let’s get rid of the ceiling altogether.  Or maybe, since a five dollar treasury bond and a five dollar bill are virtually the equivalent, why not give out more IOUs in a different form thereby removing the need for the ceiling in the first place?

But those ideas are centrist, so largely ignored and with a problem this large… someone has to be to blame.

So who is at fault?

Maybe the Tea Party’s fault?  Or maybe, like much of everything else, it’s Bush’s fault?  How about Governor Norquist?!?!

Or maybe there is no maybe.  Ask the brilliant policy minds over at The Rolling Stones, and they’ll tell you, that without question it’s the GOP’s fault.

For the logic minded, one might contend that the President, who refused to pass this perfect budget a year ago when his party controlled both legislative houses shares some blame.

But what do I know…. according to some Barack supporters, his only problem is being too much like the Big Gipper, the famous “let’s raise taxes” President…

The issue is, when you push predictions of doom and gloom for some scenario, blame has to be affixed quickly and preferably without relation to actual facts as that just muddies the waters.  Nope, the goal for almost every writer, seems to be scare tactics followed by blame.

There are a couple who have offered advice.  HBR for one had an interesting post about needing a moderator, perhaps Adam Smith.  It’s not an unpleasant thought and certainly a brilliant economic mind serving as moderator cannot help, but what most struck me about their advice is the same thing that struck me about most of those pieces blaming this or that: it misses who is truly responsible.

For when HBR states the Debt Ceiling Debate needs a moderator, I have to stop and say, they already do: the American public.  Certainly one could make the argument that the current moderators are abdicating their responsibilities and I might agree, but as much as one can delegate tasks, authority and responsibility cannot be delegated.

So sure, the public collectively can give moderator powers to Adam Smith or someone similar but alive, however the responsibility for the consequences of that process will still be the American people.

So…. is there a debate crisis?

Maybe not… as while many of us individually and seemingly ever single writer might view this whole process as out of control; seeing the whole thing as a demonstration in nothing more than the problems with this country, these are just mere opinions.

In all honesty, I’m sympathetic to that view.  However, the market place of ideas is free.  & If you analyze politics like one does the market, with the idea being the result cannot be wrong as the market is not wrong…

Then I think based upon the current political result I would submit a large enough percentage of voters have already cast their vote to continue the political infighting, applaud Pyrrhic victories, and any number of other actions which are designed to benefit their collective and not the average individual.

As proof of this reality, see incumbency rates, or polls which say cut things, but say no to all questions about what to cut, the current press articles being created because people are buying them, and more.  But even without those facts, the logic is simple: the current debate has to be ok with society at large because a free people is watching it happen and doing nothing, in a concerted effort, to substantially change anything.

So by virtue of its mere existence, it is the correct debate needed at this time.

& if it’s not?

Well, as Lincoln stated <paraphrased here>  ”As a nation of free men, we will live forever, or die by suicide.”

Infinite Monkey Theorems

Things worth reading…   

or at least pondering and forgetting quickly… 

So… how good is China’s new stealth fighter?  Not sure, but I’d start by asking this guy(here via MSNBC): 

HONOLULU — A former B-2 stealth bomber engineer was sentenced to 32 years in prison Monday for selling military secrets to China in the latest of several high-profile cases of Chinese espionage in the U.S.

US economics…

Businesses have not yet started hiring as UE claims are up.  Some of it is due to delays due to weather were people who would’ve claimed last week didn’t, but still not a good sign (here via BizTimes.com):

New applications for U.S. jobless benefits jumped by 51,000 to 454,000 last week, the U.S. Labor Department reported today, up from 403,000 during the previous week….

The four-week average of new claims, climbed 15,750 to 428,750, the highest level in two months, the Labor Department said. 

Additionally, the CBO reported this week, what all politicians have known for decades, but have consistently ignored…. social security is a looming and ever-growing problem (here via EpochTimes): 

In its Budget and Economic Outlook report for fiscal years 2011 to 2021, the CBO anticipates that the Social Security program will run a $45 billion deficit for 2011, and will be in the red for at least the next ten years. 

And…

According to the Associated Press, if present Social Security spending and funding levels are sustained and adjusted for the coming influx of Baby Boomers applying for and collecting Social Security checks, the program’s trust fund could be emptied by about 2037.

President Obama’s thoughts about this re: State of the union speech… no problems at all… full remarks here:

Starting in 2011, we are prepared to freeze government spending for three years.  (Applause.)  Spending related to our national security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will not be affected.

Not “affected’?  I guess that doesn’t discount it from affecting us…. but why worry about that when we can spend more money on things we don’t need (speech cont’d):

Next, we can put Americans to work today building the infrastructure of tomorrow.  From the first railroads to the Interstate Highway System, our nation has always been built to compete.  There’s no reason Europe or China should have the fastest trains, or the new factories that manufacture clean energy products.

Tomorrow, I’ll visit Tampa, Florida, where workers will soon break ground on a new high-speed railroad funded by the Recovery Act.

That’s some vision there; to ignore the looming crisis and instead deflect to a new boondoggle.  & not just a boondoggle, but it seems this is the answer to so many of life’s troubles… the environment, traffic congestion, sprawl…. yes, this magical elixir that is so incredibly great, that it can’t possibly survive without federal government to operate.

But wait… it will create jobs!  (speech cont’d):

There are projects like that all across this country that will create jobs and help move our nation’s goods, services, and information. 

Of course if it’s a “jobs’ program” and not a new transportation program (look over here – shiny stuff)… well, let’s let Milton Friedman discuss jobs’ programs (here):

Milton recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: ‘You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.’ To which Milton replied: ‘Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.’

Either way, here is a good response to the State of the Union from Cato.

Lastly, more great stuff from the Economist.  This time an Ideas Arena

As business leaders, politicians and journalists meet at the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos to discuss the year ahead, The Economist will be inviting readers and guests to participate in a series of online debates questioning the future of global leadership. From now until February 18th, we’ll be examining the rapid emergence of a single global elite whose decisions, and opinions, affect us all.

In 1998 idiots everywhere, especially those in MO, with full bipartisan support, clamored for one thing.  To see Mark McGwire’s baseball accomplishment of 70 homes run in one year be immortalized in the best way they know how; renaming public works projects, specifically a stretch of I70 in St. Louis.

Yep, it takes a good grasp on reality, a complete understanding of the consistency with which humans fail to properly analyze people, and above all an understanding in the valuelessness of most fads (read: 99%) to have pushed this silly idea in the first place.

But with this firm grasp on reality, and several opinion articles throughout the sports world, MO legislators just couldn’t let the voice of the people go unanswered.  So without much hesitation, they eagerly followed the blind and move quickly; utilizing the power of the state to honor one Mark McGwire.

An Ode to Steroids: Mark McGuire Highway Signage

No worries that when the highway was built in the 1950s, it was named after the venerable and brilliant writer Mark Twain.  Meh, twas but a worn down speed bump on the lemming run to honor greatness, as evidenced by this facts strange absence in most press accounts… but there’s more.

No worries either that the steroid stories were just getting started, though clearly gaining momentum.

No worries, because time has this way about it.  It has that thing… that quality which is always lurking, the quality of a teacher.  Whether we humans like it or not, time has an infinite ability to show us the error of our ways.  It constantly proves to us that silly actions directed quickly towards cultural fads just don’t have the same end results as deliberate and thoughtful actions directed towards the long term.

& in 2008 time won this battle once again.  While 10 years too late, the MO legislators saw in their infinite wisdom to reverse course and rename Mark McGwire Highway back to Mark Twain Highway (here).

I wonder what Mark Twain would’ve thought about all this back and forth of naming a highway?  It’s pure speculation, but he likely wouldn’t have cared all that much.  If asked, you can almost sense his answer, the short quip, spoken in his long drawl, “Well, at least now it’s named after someone deserving of such acclaim.”

But the problem with idiots is that they have to be constantly challenged.    Left to their own devices, the Paris Hilton & Lindsay Lohan interchange isn’t far behind.

Which is a funny thought and unlikely, but idiots given too much free reign can actually make society poorer overall.

Enter Censorship

Really, the last refuse of the despot and idiot alike.  This time thankfully it’s not despots we fear, but only idiots as they take aim at Mark Twain… again.

Apparently, unbound by rational thought, educators have been pushing for years and have finally succeeded in getting a publisher to censor Mark Twain.

(more…)

It’s a truism of real leaders since the dawn of time; they find themselves, not from true success and stable times, but rather from adversity and chaos. When faced with those seemingly insurmountable odds, it’s the strongest who remain calm, read the landscape, and discover new answers from which they can seek out continued success.

Though under great stress, we humans tend towards the flight or flight response. True leaders however, can use these difficulties against themselves to provide both motivation and a sense of urgency to gain the ingenuity required for such challenges.

This is understood well in society. Like business leaders who understand innovation can be helped significantly by design constraints (here):

Great designers understand this. Charles Eames says design is all about innovating around constraints. And it’s the constraints – the scarcity – that fires the designer’s creativity. Smart business people “get it” too. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos embraces self-imposed scarcity saying, “One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.”

They understand that principle of economic scarcity. As do military leaders. Sun Tzu notes in the Art of War:

For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

For President Obama, the Tea Party & the Republicans taking back control of the House of Representatives could give him the opportunity to display true deft.

Assuming it does happen as predicted (here via the Philly Inquirer) however, the President is accorded a tough task ahead.

He would now have the body responsible for appropriations bills (all spending bills much start in the House & they are very important. For instance, they can kill health care by simply not funding it….) mainly in place due to running against him. Secondarily, while they don’t wish to be seen as obstructers, their willingness to work with Obama will be small even without their election strategy. Because any bill passed, regardless of how/why, if it turns out to be a good or well liked idea, Obama will naturally take credit to further his chances for re-election in 2012.

& the Democrats know that neither the President nor health care is a selling point for this election, even if they are communicating differently. The facts are that se hasn’t really made many direct candidate speeches, just backyard BBQs in key districts in key states. They are essentially, and correctly, playing against their weakness – his popularity.

Not a bad strategy in the short term, but I think people have heard him speak enough and any celebrity (yes, while the President is certainly more important and more powerful than any normal celebrity, s/he is still a celebrity) runs the risk of over saturation.

Irregardless, with Obama, the question is can he live inside those constraints?

What we know is given a new landscape, the answer for tomorrow’s question will not be the same answer as today’s. I think if he can push himself with a sense of urgency, surveys the landscape to see what he has and what he can accomplish with what he has. Then uses both the sense of urgency and strategic thinking by changing his game plan when the field of battle changes…. well, then we’ll see a real leader who may live up to his Nobel Peace Prize (here).

Or said more succinctly, it’s a crappy state of affairs you might find yourself in Mr. President, but challenges is how leaders prove themselves.

Honestly, I don’t think he’ll be able to do it. I think he’s too insecure (here) about himself and his handlers seem to know little more than an approval ratings drop equals time for Obama to give more speeches. & I don’t honestly think that’s likely to change…. but predictions are better left to Ms. Cleo.

What is likely however is the people around him understand exactly this point.  They do know it. The question is whether their emotions towards their beliefs (see: Confirmation Bias here & here) combined with the difficulty of telling a President who gives great speeches to shut up. Not to mention game theory predicts leaders to surround themselves with “yes men”.

All of that makes significant and required change seem unlikely, but I’d never count out someone who made it to the Presidency, nor, the team that helped him get there.

So Mr. President, here’s your chance.

For months since the reelection of Iranian President Dictator, protests against the Islamic regime have ebbed and flowed.  DA (Detailed Abstractions) covered the reelection farse  here & here.  While the news was dismal, massive protests started in June and continue to this day.  The most recent protests staged on December 7th (via CNN):

Now I’m not a big fan of protests in most of the free world, but these students deserve the world’s attention.  Unlike protests in America, their heroic protests are done in the face of threats of violence against not only the protestors, but their families as well  (@Stratfor):

…Iranian Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei announced Dec. 8 that “intelligence and security … forces have been ordered not to give any leeway to those who break the law, act against national security and disturb public order.”  He added that “families are responsible too if their children are arrested. They will have no right to complain.”…

Lest we forget though, every totalitarian terrorist regime in the world, is only beating  people for their own good:

“Our people can no longer take this… it is our duty to defend the rights of the people.”

That’s right – the regime is taking that stance that by actively preventing free speech through threats of violence tothe  protestors and their families they are in some way preserving the rights of others.

As Plato said:

This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector.

For Veteran’s Day today, we honor the warrior.  That person willing to sacrifice so that others can live in peace, even though some of our greatest thinkers only view war as complete folly.

Let’s start with a very short sighted and simplistic quote from Mahatma Gandhi (1869 – 1948), “Non-Violence in Peace and War”:

What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?

According to this logic – if a totalitarian regime invades a free country, the free country should just take it, because war will be worse regardless of the victor…  Not only that, but from just a strict critical thinking view, you never limit your options even in your speech as it constrains the possible outcomes.

Irregardless, for more sense on the subject, John Stuart Mill:

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.

& in some ways, there you have the debate still raging today between those who think all war can just go away and those who understand the true hell of war, but are able to sometimes see the necessity.

For those brave enough to see the necessity, take some time out to thank a vet today.

For those unwilling to see, I feel sorry for you.

With my track record of keeping schedules, this might the first and last Random Quote Wednesday, but in today’s society my intent is seemingly more important than the results.  So if this is the last installment, I still get an A for effort.

Irregardless, during lunch today I was discussing interesting quotes, quips, comebacks, and even in one case, almost a partial quote.

Partial Quote First:

Towards the end of Albert Einstein’s life, he began working furiously to disprove some of his own earlier work as it lead to the beginning of quantum theory.  In a debate between Mr. Einstein and immense genius Neils Bohr, Mr. Einstein was explaining his objections to the probabilistic nature of quantum theory, versus his beliefs in a more deterministic.  His life work of finding that elusive theory of everything, he couldn’t bring himself to believe in a chaotic or random system.  To that end he stated confidently:

“God does not play dice with the universe.”

Which is a quote that a lot of people have heard before.  The better quote from this exchange however belongs to Mr. Bohr who replied:

“”Don’t tell God what to do with his dice.”

From there, in my random, ADHD way, this lead to me think about other good comebacks or quips in history starting with President Ronald Reagan whose quick wit verged on genius.

Even in trying times he seemed to have his wits about him.  While going into surgery following the assassination attempt, he looked up to note he was surrounded by surgeons to whom he stated:

“God I hope you’re all Republicans.”

At a better time in his administration he used this humor very well.  During one press conference he was being pushed hard by a certain young white house correspondent, Sam Donaldson (here):

“Mr. President, in talking about the continuing recession tonight, you have blamed mistakes in the past and you have blamed the Congress. Does any of the blame belong to you?”

To which Mr. Reagan quickly replied:

“Yes because for many years I was a Democrat.”

For one of my all time favorite exchanges though, enter Milton Friedman.  As one of the most influential thinkers of this century, he pushed for school vouchers, for less regulations, against price & wage controls, and other topics.

One of those topics he successfully argued in Congress was to end the draft.  From LibertyUnbound (here):

…Friedman not only solidified the verdict against the draft; he vigorously defended it in congressional testimony. He had a famous confrontation with Gen. William Westmoreland, commander of the forces in Vietnam. Friedman tells it in “Two Lucky People”:

In the course of his testimony, he made the statement that he did not want to command an army of mercenaries. I stopped him and said, “General, would you rather command an army of slaves?” He drew himself up and said, “I don’t like to hear our patriotic draftees referred to as slaves.” I said, “I don’t like to hear our patriotic volunteers referred to as mercenaries.” But I went on to say, “If they are mercenaries, then I, sir, am a mercenary professor, and you, sir, are a mercenary general; we are served by mercenary physicians, we use a mercenary lawyer, and we get our meat from a mercenary butcher.” That was the last that we heard from the general about mercenaries….

This was in 1966, where actual logic and rationale could have a real impact, regardless of “whose team” said it first:

…In December 1966, when the Vietnam War still had the strong support of the American public, the University of Chicago held a conference on the draft. There were 74 participants. Friedman was there, and spoke against the draft, as did economist Walter Oi. Several politicians were there too, including Senator Edward Kennedy and a young Republican congressman named Donald Rumsfeld. Also anthropologist Margaret Mead, who favored the draft. In his and his wife Rose’s autobiography, “Two Lucky People,” Friedman wrote:

I have attended many conferences. I have never attended any other that had so dramatic an effect on the participants. A straw poll taken at the outset of the conference recorded two-thirds of the participants in favor of the draft; a similar poll at the end, two-thirds opposed. I believe that this conference was the key event that started the ball rolling decisively toward ending the draft….

That’s all for this inaugural installment of Random Quote Wednesday.   Please feel free to share interesting stories and quotes from history.

PS:  For any Anita Dunn fans – I will not quote mass murderers with admiration nor ever refer to any dictator as one of my favorite philosophers.

Is it just me or does Vice President Joe Biden actually appear to be a non-member of the White House staff?

I could be seeing patterns where they don’t exist, but it seems that each time Mr. Biden opens his mouth, the WH either ignores it completely or attempts to restate it.

Remember  the swine flu thing? (at NPR):

“I would tell members of my family — and I have — that I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places now,” Vice President Joe Biden said today as he made the rounds of the morning TV news shows. “It’s not just going into Mexico. If you’re any place in a confined aircraft and one person sneezes, it goes all the way through the aircraft.”…

Followed shortly thereafter by WH clarification (LA Times):

…”I think the vice president misrepresented what the vice president wanted to say,” said White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs….

Later in the day, Gibbs was pressed about the discrepancy between Biden’s original words and the White House’s.

“I understand what he said. I’m telling you what he meant to say,” Gibbs said…

After proving his immense knowledge of swine flu, he went on to call Russia a crumbling system (@ Washington Times):

…Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was forced Sunday to correct publicly Mr. Biden’s characterization of Russia as a crumbling country, a description that infuriated Russian officials and contradicted President Obama’s efforts to “reset” relations with the world power….

Just like that one crazy uncle, he’s the comedic gift that keeps on giving.  This week, as the White House has pushed hard to show how the stimulus has worked, Mr. Biden started using words like “depression” (@ ABC News):

In recent weeks, Vice President Joe Biden has said that the U.S. economy has been in what he calls “a great recession” and has stressed that it is not a depression, echoing the general consensus of the nation’s economists.

But today the vice president took some liberty with the economic terms to illustrate the continuing struggles of the unemployed in the United States.

For the millions of Americans without a job, “it’s a depression,” Biden said….

In fact, not only does Biden seem to misrepresent the curent administration’s positions, he isn’t even internally consistent (ABC News):

…Just two weeks ago, Biden said that he calls the current state of the economy “the great recession” because it’s “the single worst economic circumstance” the United States has been in, “short of a depression.”

On Oct. 2, Biden said that “fears of a depression have been replaced by forecasts of recovery” and on Sept. 3 Biden said that “instead of talking about the beginning of a depression, we’re talking about the end of a recession eight months after taking office.”…

Now it’s true that some statements made by VPs are seemingly stupid only because the VP is being pushed to say things the President can ‘t.  This is especially true during campaigns, but also during any actual administration.

Either way – I’m truly torn.  On the one hand, I honestly hope Mr. Biden starts getting invited to WH briefings in order to reduce his perceived idiocy on the world stage.  On the other hand – almost every time he talks, I get a good laugh.