Detailed Abstractions

Up until a couple days ago, I didn’t know who Freddie de Boer was/is. Apparently, he’s a semi-retired provocative and well known leftist blogger. What brought him to my attention is a puzzling headline from the Atlantic, Does The Blogosphere Permit Left Wing Ideas?

Puzzling in that I’m not sure what the argument would be, when the blogosphere is the definition of an open forum.  So I read further to find out that Freddie began the argument:

There are many myths within the political blogosphere, but none is so deeply troubling or so highly treasured by mainstream political bloggers than this: that the political blogosphere contains within it the whole range of respectable political opinion, and that once an issue has been thoroughly debated therein, it has had a full and fair hearing.

Um… okay.  I don’t know that I’ve ever heard anyone assert this “myth” before, don’t know anyone who believes it, and certainly don’t know anyone advocating it strongly.

I have heard several arguments along the lines of, the increase in the blogosphere has increased the number of views overall, but nothing like “media reports, blogosphere decide”.  In fact, many of those arguing that the blogosphere has increased the number of voices don’t agree that this has been a good thing, nor that it’s in any way equal in presentation of all ideas.   Just that it can help and has increased the total number of ideas available.

But I digress… the more puzzling part is this:

The truth is that almost anything resembling an actual left wing has been systematically written out of the conversation within the political blogosphere, both intentionally and not, while those writing within it congratulate themselves for having answered all left-wing criticism.

Puzzling because the one thing the blogosphere is above all else: a free market.  Yes, it’s not completely free as costs do exist, but costs for bloggers have been decreasing dramatically over time and are close to being zero from a casual level. (more…)

As an update to Wednesday’s post, the idiocy continues, in this case, with Paul Krugman (here via Daily Caller):

When you heard the terrible news from Arizona, were you completely surprised? Or were you, at some level, expecting something like this atrocity to happen?

Put me in the latter category. I’ve had a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach ever since the final stages of the 2008 campaign….

 Now it’s obviously impossible to know whether Mr. Krugman was honestly surprised about the horrendous events of this past weekend or not, but it seems hard to believe that anyone who heard about the incident thought, “yep – saw that coming.”

But in the grand scheme, it really doesn’t matter whether he was truly surprised as that’s not his main point.  Before he gets there though, he has to set up the framework (article cont’d):

…And you could see, just by watching the crowds at McCain-Palin rallies, that it was ready to happen again….

That’s some prescient vision he has there.  Without any proof, without any examples, without anything at all, he can “see” what was inevitable.  Not sure why he didn’t stop it or call for the possibility as loudly as possible.  It seems like the only moral actions when you “know” violent acts committed against innocent parties is inevitable. 

Additionally, this uncanny ability of his makes one wonder if the people from Miss Cleo’s office has contacted him yet to see if he’s looking for a career change?   Or maybe the CIA would like to test his capabilities?

But I digress, extra-sensory perceptions aside, Mr. Krugman continues framing the argument using a government report (article cont’d):

The Department of Homeland Security reached the same conclusion: In April 2009 an internal report warned that right-wing extremism was on the rise, with a growing potential for violence….

Which would be interesting to note, if only it were true.  There was and is a DHS report detailing the potential for increased radicalization and recruitment due to a very unique climate, but the report itself begins with this easily comprehendible statement:

The DHS/Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) has no specific information that doemstic righwing terrorists are currently planning acts of violence, but rightwing extremists may be gaining new recruits by playing on their fears about several emergent issues.

The report continues as it details what it sees as specific climate variables for which rightwing extremist groups might exploit, but noted, in the 2nd paragraph the threats which concern Mr. Krugman so much, are “largely rhetorical and have not indicated plans to carry out violent acts“.

But Mr. Krugman sees, so a potential for increased recruitment and radicalization based upon societal factors and an increase in the potential for real harm are now the same.  I doubt that’s true for most objectively viewing the same data, but I don’t think most people think like Mr. Krugman.

Nonetheless, our vaunted author continues.  With an increase in threats (real) and vandalism (possibly real, no studies, no proof offered), Mr. Krugman’s vision sees the obvious results (article cont’d):

One of these days, someone was bound to take it to the next level. And now someone has….

Who was that guy again? 

It’s true that the shooter in Arizona appears to have been mentally troubled.  But that doesn’t mean that his act can or should be treated as an isolated event, having nothing to do with the national climate….

So even though Mr. Krugman believes the shooter is likely insane, the national climate is somehow involved.  Not only involved, but (article cont’d):

…something about the current state of America has been causing far more disturbed people than before to act out their illness by threatening, or actually engaging in, political violence.

His proof?  Increased levels of violence?  Increased crime rates?  Nope.  (more…)

Over @ Freedom In Our Time blog, you can read a perfect example of finding facts in order to confirm an already preheld belief (whole thing here).  In this case, that preheld belief is none other than one shared by a large number of libertarians, that cops are bad.

In the article, he starts with some interesting stories about individual cops committing illegal acts against those they’ve sworn to protect.  Like most freedom loving people, I too abhor these stories and hope that the punishment fits the crime.

I will even go a step further and state clearly; I think the institution which is law enforcement has some serious issues with which should concern all Americans.  Not the least of which is the seeming ability for bad cops to keep or get new jobs, even after they’ve shown a propensity to abuse their discretionary power (not for now, but one can make the argument that with so many laws on the books, a law enforcement officer’s discretion increases – forest tree thing again).

Having said that my concerns about an institution, can’t be seen as an indictment on individual police officers.

Not so much with this author… starting with a story about bad cops, he finally, after many, many words later, reaches the real point:

What this means, of course, is that our system of “public safety” is built on a population of armed functionaries invested with the power of discretionary killing, many of whom are so emotionally unstable that they pose a potentially lethal threat even to themselves.

The proof offered?  Poorly understood stats:

Contrary to what we’re told to believe, law enforcement is not a particularly dangerous occupation, at least when measured in terms of acts of violence directed at police officers. However, police are frequently a lethal danger to themselves: According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, each year “twice as many cops … commit suicide as are killed in the line of duty.” Significantly, another Kenosha police officer killed himself just weeks prior to Strausbaugh’s suicide….

& an advocacy organization’s statements:

Former Maryland police officer Robert Douglas, executive director of the National P.O.L.I.C.E. Suicide Foundation, describes suicide as “the number one killer of law enforcement today.

Oh… and many, many, many words on some very bad cops who deserve very serious punishments.  Did I forget to mention that?

But easily enough, we can put that all aside and say by what we know in public, thanks to a somewhat informative press, and our interactions with the law enforcement community, that it’s highly likely that many of our law enforcement officers are not emotionally unstable.  If they were, we’d have fears larger than the price of the speeding ticket every single time we encountered an officer in uniform…. but we don’t.

So where’s the disconnect?

Well, firmly in the author’s mind, as this truly is a case where the author seeks to find specific anecdotes, combine those, evil as they may be, with insignificant statistics, and round us all up to the inevitable conclusion: police are in fact the boogeyman!

Police Officers in Reality

Other's Version of Reality

Armed with an understanding of reality is enough to refute this, but let’s take a closer look at the actual stats with respect to suicide and the statement “twice as many die of suicide as are killed in the line of duty”.

Let’s start with the word twice, and ask the analytical questions.  Twice of what?  Cause twice of zero, is well… zero.  So what is the killed in duty rate?  Police officer suicide rate?  & do these rates actually differ (more…)

It’s been a full five years since Thomas Friedman gave us the book and idea that The World is Flat. While I’ll never be one to completely agree with Mr. Friedman, he proffers from an economic perspective that national boundaries are becoming less and less a barrier.  The consequence in America, as with all other western societies, is a need to prepare to compete with other countries for jobs.

As outsourcing becomes easier and developing countries access to highly skilled resources in developing countries, citizens have been or will soon be forced to compete for jobs not only with their local competition, but with their global competitors as well.

DA noticed for a little while now, that the US seems to moving backwards in terms of competitiveness (here):

…Odd thing is – those without freedoms or with lesser freedoms around the world have been pushing for market reforms, including Germany, France, China, Russia… while the US is pushing centralized control over banking and health care (to name two things)….

Energy apparently skipped my mind that day, but either way… with more evidence at hand, Ron Hart wrote a great piece The dangers of ‘Crony Capitolism’. He begins with a a prescient Winston Churchill quote:

Some people regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. Others look on it as a cow they can milk.  Not enough people see it as a healthy horse, pulling a sturdy wagon.

His basic premise is that through increased economic regulations in America and a movement away from the free market, we are in real danger of losing our economic edge:

…But the real damage done by his taking control of our major banks and car companies (and now one-sixth of our economy with his health care grab), is that private capitalism, one of the great drivers of our country’s abundance for all of us, has been damaged….

& due to these anti-market policies combined with ever increasing regulation, we are not only in danger in the future, but the signs are already here:

…The result, per Forbes magazine, is that we are losing ground to foreign competitors.

Korean automaker Hyundai registered record sales in August. Chinese telecom manufacturer Huawei might soon pass Cisco in sales. Brazil’s jet maker Embraer is, according to Cessna CEO Jack Pelton “scaring us to death.” And more IPOs are happening away from America’s overly regulated capital markets. In addition, India has heart bypass surgery outcomes equal to the U.S. at half the cost, and Singapore is willing to pay U.S. biotech research stars about $715,000 in annual salaries….

Concluding with:

…In short, we do not have a monopoly on capitalism. We risk losing out to a world market that moves faster and with more resolve today than ever before. Our new political class does not seem to care that innovation and capitalism are fleeing….

Well said.

In yet another tax on the citizenry in the form of regulation, Washington DC has decided to sue AT&T (here):

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The attorney general for Washington D.C. has filed a lawsuit against an AT&T Inc (T.N) unit, seeking to recover consumers’ unused balances on prepaid calling cards….

Why?  Because, unused minutes on a prepaid calling card is identical in the plaintiffs’ eyes as if you were to own a house and die without relatives or a will:

…”AT&T’s prepaid calling cards must be treated as unclaimed property under district law,” the attorney general’s office said in a statement….

But not to worry – using official government logic, they reason since we’re already doing wrong in one place, why not here?

…States and municipalities have often similarly used unclaimed property laws, known as escheat laws, to claim ownership of unused retail gift card balances….

I’m sure the states did this out of the kindness of their hearts though – they weren’t looking for any additional revenue stream, only to make sure those with unused balances could rightfully claim them…  As if that were easy to do.  As most know, the original purchaser of the card is unlikely to be the end recipient.  As for me personally, I tend to get gift cards from various people and usually just pass them to my daughter – so at this point, the intended recipient wasn’t even the final recipient.

Not only that, but if you buy a gift $50 dollar gift card, leave $5 indefinitely and businesses are required to have a program to capture that, process it, file it, and eventually write the state a check with your name attached to it… well, all of that increases overhead and lowers profit, which raises prices and reduces new entries into the market.

Lastly, these laws don’t take into account the time value of money.  As we all know, inflation is constant even if stable and relatively slow.  Meaning, what I can buy for $10 today, I will likely not be able to purchase the same amount of stuff with $10 in a year.

Of course unused amounts on gift cards is a recent invention.  So let’s first look at this law historically.  Escheat laws were meant to cover real property (here):

…The term is often now applied to the transfer of the title to a person’s property to the state when the person dies intestate without any other person capable of taking the property as heir. For example, a common-law jurisdiction’s intestacy statute might provide that when someone dies without a will, and is not survived by a spouse, descendants, parents, grandparents, descendants of parents, children or grandchildren of grandparents, or great-grandchildren of grandparents, then the person’s estate will escheat to the state….

Which makes complete sense.  For example – If I bought a prime piece of real estate in Manhattan and died without will or heirs…. what should happen?  Any decent legal framework which includes property rights needs an answer as leaving property in such an unknown state isn’t a good idea.

Unlike real property however, unused minutes don’t really exist.   Even though recent TV commercials might have confused the DC attorney general, they aren’t little plastic orange discs logging actual time.

Additionally, the escheat law in this case isn’t needed as it’s being handled without issue in a private contract.  Sort of like a will is used when distributing someone’s estate.  Currently, the contract for AT&T prepaid cell phones, which each buyer assumes on purchase, expires unused minutes if not used within 90 days (IE – they revert back to the company).

Lastly, according to the attorney general, the industry knows unused minutes account for 5 to 20 percent of the minutes purchased.  Unlike unused gift cards, treating unsure minutes has an additional consequence.  Without fully knowing, but recognizing the very competitive market that is the cell phone industry – it is likely true that the average unused portion is factored in the current pricing structure.

Therefore changing that from 5 to 20 percent unused minutes to always zero and increasing overall administration costs, will only result in higher prices for the end consumers.

But they are going after an evil company, right?

Over @Rueters Blog, Felix Salmon has a recent post titled, Why the Plutocrats will return where he makes an interesting point:

…Remember too that when you have a progressive tax system, especially when there are surcharges on people making seven-figure incomes, you also have a system where for any given level of national income, the greater the inequality, the greater the government’s tax revenues. And indeed federal revenues have been rising faster than median wages for decades now, thanks to the rich getting ever richer….

Now I don’t believe in a big conspiracy, but I do pretty much believe in the selectorate theory… I say pretty much only because I’m still digesting all the information as well as the proofs, but basically the theory utilizes game theory and historical data to model political institutions, governments, leaders, etc, etc & their behaviors.  It has also been used as a predictive tool for the CIA, DOD, and others through one of the primary author’s (Bruce Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) work with amazing accuracy (here).

As one who loves understanding critical thinking, I was at first very skeptical towards the idea that math could model international predictions well.   Which isn’t to say I think math is limited, I do not.  For instance, I firmly believe that if we could ever measure all the variables in a dice throw, we could accurately predict the outcome.  Therefore the issue isn’t one of math, but of the ability to model such complex systems.

For the die throw, it’s an issue of accuracy.  Sure, we know the air pressure to the thousandth degree, but why not the millionth?  Billionth?  For predictions through modeling behavior, the complexity is not only accuracy since people’s motives aren’t always clear, but in the interactions with additional groups of people as well.    The number of interactions which might be analyzed in a group of only 5 people is 120, with 6 – 720, with 535 people in congress…. 535!

With computers of course we can crunch very large data sets these days in smaller and smaller amounts of time, but the theory is also powerful due to its simplicity.  It states that leaders will pay back those people that helped them become leaders in order to stay leaders.  This seems fairly intuitive and agrees with most understanding of incentives, but from here they can make predictions based upon the ratio between what they call W, the Winning Coalition, and S, the selectorate or those who can affect who the leader is.

To start with, we assume the leaders real ability to incentivize those in the winning coalition is to tax and spend.  They bring in revenues and use those revenues in such a way as to stay in power.  The have only two ways to allocate those resources, either through private expenditures or public spending.

The corollary with W/S is that when W is small as compared to S, the revenues spent will be mainly private and conversely if W is large compared to S, expenditures will be mostly public.

So if we take mainly free societies of today, where the selectorate is made up of the voting population which is usually only constrained by age, the winning coalition is theoretically 50% + 1 voter of the selectorate.  Due to the shear size of W in this case, the leaders incentives line up with public spending because she would be unable to to spend enough on each member of the coalition privately to ensure re-election.

Conversely in more closed systems, where the selectorate is controlled to a great deal (Iran, China, etc) and even if you are a member of the selectorate, the winning coalition is controlled and smaller, spending private money can keep the smaller coalition in tact.

Following the model and Mr. Salmon’s post on returning to a plutocracy, it makes sense that putting people into poverty can actually align with the incentives of our government.  The more people in need of assistance means keeping power is easier as more people are in need of the public expenditures.

I’m not saying I agree with all of this it total just yet, but at first glance Mr. Salmon’s intuitive thoughts seem to be backed up by known game theory modeling to present a interesting conclusion which I think goes to further underscore the idea that limited government is required for long term societal health.

To read the full analysis, you will likely need to register and possibly pay, but Stratfor just announced A Possible Bin Laden Sighting:

A blurry image of a person resembling Osama bin Laden appeared in Abu Yahya al-Libi’s video sermon commemorating the end of Ramadan.

Is it just me or does Vice President Joe Biden actually appear to be a non-member of the White House staff?

I could be seeing patterns where they don’t exist, but it seems that each time Mr. Biden opens his mouth, the WH either ignores it completely or attempts to restate it.

Remember  the swine flu thing? (at NPR):

“I would tell members of my family — and I have — that I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places now,” Vice President Joe Biden said today as he made the rounds of the morning TV news shows. “It’s not just going into Mexico. If you’re any place in a confined aircraft and one person sneezes, it goes all the way through the aircraft.”…

Followed shortly thereafter by WH clarification (LA Times):

…”I think the vice president misrepresented what the vice president wanted to say,” said White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs….

Later in the day, Gibbs was pressed about the discrepancy between Biden’s original words and the White House’s.

“I understand what he said. I’m telling you what he meant to say,” Gibbs said…

After proving his immense knowledge of swine flu, he went on to call Russia a crumbling system (@ Washington Times):

…Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was forced Sunday to correct publicly Mr. Biden’s characterization of Russia as a crumbling country, a description that infuriated Russian officials and contradicted President Obama’s efforts to “reset” relations with the world power….

Just like that one crazy uncle, he’s the comedic gift that keeps on giving.  This week, as the White House has pushed hard to show how the stimulus has worked, Mr. Biden started using words like “depression” (@ ABC News):

In recent weeks, Vice President Joe Biden has said that the U.S. economy has been in what he calls “a great recession” and has stressed that it is not a depression, echoing the general consensus of the nation’s economists.

But today the vice president took some liberty with the economic terms to illustrate the continuing struggles of the unemployed in the United States.

For the millions of Americans without a job, “it’s a depression,” Biden said….

In fact, not only does Biden seem to misrepresent the curent administration’s positions, he isn’t even internally consistent (ABC News):

…Just two weeks ago, Biden said that he calls the current state of the economy “the great recession” because it’s “the single worst economic circumstance” the United States has been in, “short of a depression.”

On Oct. 2, Biden said that “fears of a depression have been replaced by forecasts of recovery” and on Sept. 3 Biden said that “instead of talking about the beginning of a depression, we’re talking about the end of a recession eight months after taking office.”…

Now it’s true that some statements made by VPs are seemingly stupid only because the VP is being pushed to say things the President can ‘t.  This is especially true during campaigns, but also during any actual administration.

Either way – I’m truly torn.  On the one hand, I honestly hope Mr. Biden starts getting invited to WH briefings in order to reduce his perceived idiocy on the world stage.  On the other hand – almost every time he talks, I get a good laugh.