Infinite Monkey Theorems

Things worth reading…   

or at least pondering and forgetting quickly… 

So… how good is China’s new stealth fighter?  Not sure, but I’d start by asking this guy(here via MSNBC): 

HONOLULU — A former B-2 stealth bomber engineer was sentenced to 32 years in prison Monday for selling military secrets to China in the latest of several high-profile cases of Chinese espionage in the U.S.

US economics…

Businesses have not yet started hiring as UE claims are up.  Some of it is due to delays due to weather were people who would’ve claimed last week didn’t, but still not a good sign (here via BizTimes.com):

New applications for U.S. jobless benefits jumped by 51,000 to 454,000 last week, the U.S. Labor Department reported today, up from 403,000 during the previous week….

The four-week average of new claims, climbed 15,750 to 428,750, the highest level in two months, the Labor Department said. 

Additionally, the CBO reported this week, what all politicians have known for decades, but have consistently ignored…. social security is a looming and ever-growing problem (here via EpochTimes): 

In its Budget and Economic Outlook report for fiscal years 2011 to 2021, the CBO anticipates that the Social Security program will run a $45 billion deficit for 2011, and will be in the red for at least the next ten years. 

And…

According to the Associated Press, if present Social Security spending and funding levels are sustained and adjusted for the coming influx of Baby Boomers applying for and collecting Social Security checks, the program’s trust fund could be emptied by about 2037.

President Obama’s thoughts about this re: State of the union speech… no problems at all… full remarks here:

Starting in 2011, we are prepared to freeze government spending for three years.  (Applause.)  Spending related to our national security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will not be affected.

Not “affected’?  I guess that doesn’t discount it from affecting us…. but why worry about that when we can spend more money on things we don’t need (speech cont’d):

Next, we can put Americans to work today building the infrastructure of tomorrow.  From the first railroads to the Interstate Highway System, our nation has always been built to compete.  There’s no reason Europe or China should have the fastest trains, or the new factories that manufacture clean energy products.

Tomorrow, I’ll visit Tampa, Florida, where workers will soon break ground on a new high-speed railroad funded by the Recovery Act.

That’s some vision there; to ignore the looming crisis and instead deflect to a new boondoggle.  & not just a boondoggle, but it seems this is the answer to so many of life’s troubles… the environment, traffic congestion, sprawl…. yes, this magical elixir that is so incredibly great, that it can’t possibly survive without federal government to operate.

But wait… it will create jobs!  (speech cont’d):

There are projects like that all across this country that will create jobs and help move our nation’s goods, services, and information. 

Of course if it’s a “jobs’ program” and not a new transportation program (look over here – shiny stuff)… well, let’s let Milton Friedman discuss jobs’ programs (here):

Milton recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: ‘You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.’ To which Milton replied: ‘Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.’

Either way, here is a good response to the State of the Union from Cato.

Lastly, more great stuff from the Economist.  This time an Ideas Arena

As business leaders, politicians and journalists meet at the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos to discuss the year ahead, The Economist will be inviting readers and guests to participate in a series of online debates questioning the future of global leadership. From now until February 18th, we’ll be examining the rapid emergence of a single global elite whose decisions, and opinions, affect us all.

FAILURE When your best just isn't good enough.

It’s not a complete measure of how effective terrorists are as a whole, but when they start taking credit for massive failures, it’s something to note (here):

A Yemen-based al Qaeda group is claiming responsibility for the international mail bomb plot uncovered late last week….

& in this case, not only are they taking credit for failures, but Al Qaeda has even taken credit for a bombing they didn’t do (here):

WASHINGTON: Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen was not behind the Sept. 3 crash of a UPS cargo plane in Dubai and falsely took responsibility for the incident, according to the FBI and Department of Homeland Security….

& to add insult to injury, one of their own provided the intelligence needed to prevent the plot (here):

Yemen has revealed that a former Guantánamo Bay detainee who fled to the country from Saudi Arabia after his release by the US tipped off authorities about the plot to send bombs on cargo planes….

Of course it’s hard to take credit for successes when none exist, but it’s interesting to note that their power has been reduced to such an extent, that failures are the only things for which credit can be taken.

& for some, looking at a terrorist group as you would any other political organization, might be unseemly,  but it is instructive nonetheless.  Recall just 9 short years ago, how everyone was certain we would be hit again. How we were warned about continuing policies.  How we were being pulled into quagmires in Afghanistan and Iraq just like they wanted.

& now – admission of failures and fake admissions of success.  How time changes things.

Disclaimer:  None of this is intended to signal that I think vigilance isn’t necessary for our security successes to continue.

WASHINGTON – More than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy….

Or maybe a double-dip (@Politico.com):

…All that’s enough to convince some observers that the economic recovery is faltering and could be heading for a “double dip” recession. And that would mean the recent green shoots of recovery turn out to be just a pause in a much longer economic slide….

& a stimulus which has saved jobs (@USA Today):

WASHINGTON — States have reported using stimulus money to create or save more than 388,000 jobs so far this year, buttressing the Obama administration’s claim that the $787 billion plan has had a significant impact on the economy….

Or maybe not (@WashingtonExaminer):

…Even if we take at face value the White House claim that it created or saved all these jobs with approximately $150 billion of the economic stimulus money, a little simple math shows the taxpayers aren’t getting any bargains here: $150 billion divided by 650,000 jobs equals $230,000 per job saved or created. Instead of taking all that time required to write the 1,588-page stimulus bill, Congress could have passed a one-pager saying the first 650,000 jobless persons to report for work at the White House will receive a voucher worth $230,000 redeemable at the university, community college or trade school of their choice. That would have been enough for a degree plus a hefty down payment on a mortgage….

Maybe some perspective is needed.  To truly put it in context, let’s look at the Great Depression (@Cato):

…According to most accounts, the stock market crash of October 1929 was the spark that sent the economy spiraling downward.

How could this be? After all, by November 1929, the stock market had started to recover, and by mid-April 1930, it had reached its pre-crash level. Contrary to the received wisdom, massive government failure — not the stock market crash — pushed the United States into the Great Depression….

As written here before (here, here & here), economic predictions are inherently tricky and the government does a very poor job because politics always gets in the way of objective truths.  NBER who is usually the group society follows for when a recession starts and ends told us in December of 2008 that December 2007 was the beginning of the dive demonstrating that most “objective” economic truths are only found in hindsight.

In fact, some brilliant legal minds have made just this point to contemplate delaying financial regulations intended to mitigate similar future scenarios in which we might find ourselves (here).  Richard Posner’s analysis:

The Report is premature in two respects. The first is that it advocates a specific course of treatment for a disease the cause or causes of which have not been determined. Now it is not always necessary to understand the cause of something you don’t like in order to be able to eliminate the effect. If you have typical allergy symptoms you may get complete relief by taking an antihistamine; it is not necessary to find out what you’re allergic to. But generally, and in the case of the current economic crisis, unless the causes of a problem are understood, it will be impossible to come up with a good solution. The causes of the crisis have not been studied systematically, and are not obvious though they are treated as such in the Report. (Remember, the Great Depression of the 1930s ended 68 years ago and economists are still debating its causes.)…

Note – this doesn’t mean that we don’t understand basic incentives and most likely results.  Like chaotic systems in which minor changes in the beginning state of a system can show drastic changes in the end results, our economic system is so complex as to defy attempts to model very specific changes.  Though with hindsight and true analysis, we can get to a point where we know with probabilities what has happened and what will likely happen given specific policies.

For instance, if we make houses cost less by giving tax breaks or whatever, sales will increase for the time that incentive exists.  If the incentive is timed, then some sales will just be premature sales and show corresponding decreases in future quarters.

Meaning, we can use a basic understanding of incentives in order to gauge most likely results, but today only with hindsight can we show real numbers on very specific things such as the stimulus bill’s impact on house sales or jobs.

& even then, given the inherent difficulty in defining a “saved” job and politicians willingness to ignore any data contrary to any rosy picture they wish to present, any economic predictions or numbers coming from politicians should be suspect by default.

A blurry image of a person resembling Osama bin Laden appeared in Abu Yahya al-Libi’s video sermon commemorating the end of Ramadan.

“If there is a way of getting this done where we’re driving down costs and people are getting health insurance at an affordable rate, and have choice of doctor, have flexibility in terms of their plans, and we could do that entirely through the market, I’d be happy to do it that way.”

This is very much a presumption based question, like “When did you stop beating your wife?”  It holds within an assumption the only plausible answer is one which uses the power of the government to control the market, and by extension individual citizens, with complete skepticism about any power of the free market.

While this seems to be the default assumption of many of my fellow citizens these days, I don’t know that I’ll ever understand how an objective look at market success versus an objective look at governmental success would lead one to believe the government is capable of much more than simple, repetitive tasks.

Having said that and even knowing the Democratic leadership and the White House is likely to ignore the answer, Mr. Cannon presents a pretty convincing case about a market solution (@Cato).  He explains:

how Congress can remove the impediments that currently prevent markets from doing so:

Whole thing here.