Detailed Abstractions

NBER has recently produced a working paper titled Game Theory and Major League Sports asserting “Professionals Do Not Play Minimax: Evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League”.

By analyzing over 3 million baseball pitches & football over 125 thousand plays, they work to find out if the assumption of minimax holds true and if not, try be able to find any hidden strategies which are currently being used.  According to the research:

…Authors Kenneth Kovash and Steven Levitt find that: “Pitchers appear to throw too many fastballs; football teams pass less than they should.” They also find that the selection of pitches or plays is too predictable. The researchers conclude that “correcting these decisionmaking errors could be worth as many as two additional victories a year to a Major League Baseball franchise and more than a half win per season for a professional football team.”…

Minimax is an assumed strategy that rational players utilize when locked into a zero sum game.  It basically states that each player will attempt to minimize their loss.  For this research, baseball and football are zero sum games in that gaining yards or points, necessitates a loss on the other side (loss of an out or field position).

This might be seen as banal, even if interesting, but continued research using game theory will be able to provide insights into fundamental human behavior.  This additional understanding  has truly long range applications especially and hopefully in the dismal field which is economics.

Indeed one of the primary and justified criticisms of current economic policies as it relates to fat taxes and other things, is that it fails to deal with real world behavior.

For instance, from a straight economics standpoint, driving 30 miles to save $100 is a nobrainer regardless of the price of the item itself.    However in research, we find people would drive 30 miles to save that $100 on an item whose normal cost is $300, but almost no one is willing to travel the extra distance if the original price tag was $30,000.

This is the kind of real world actions that bug economists to no end.  Looking at the idea with only logic, it seems that driving 30 miles for $100 is a good idea based upon the $100 dollars, not the item being purchased.  However, intuitively we know that saving 1/3 of an item’s cost versus 1/3 of 1% has different values to the individual.

Why?  Well, the answer to this puzzle will differ greatly among individual economists, but the good news is the research itself.  The more science we can use to help strengthen our basic understanding of humans can lead us to policies more thoughtful and more likely to end in the intended results than past attempt.

At this point, I’d just be happy if the understanding we had was used to understand things such as “tax it more and they’ll use it less” isn’t a strategy to much of anything, but all things in time.

In what has to be a of the sign of the coming apocalypse, Juan Williams is now defending Rush Limbaugh (video).

While debating Warren Ballentine on the O’Reilly Factor, Juan Williams defended Rush Limbaugh against the constant attacks since the public caught wind of his potential investment in the St. Louis Rams.

Apparently a combination of the celebrity culture that is today’s professional sports and the proclaimed self-righteousness of the NFL, their players’ union and professional race “leaders” can actually lead to a temporary peace deal between  Rush & Juan.

That’s only part of the story – the rest of the story should be the blatant hypocrisy of an organization which demonstrates regularly that it could care less about real criminal acts, much less controversial statements from within their ranks.

The easiest example for analyzing the league’s value system based upon their actions is Michael Vick.  Giving this guy a job after he was convicted of torturing animals to death for their unwillingness or inability to fight very well was a calculated decision about money.  But that’s really just the start of the NFL’s long tradition of tolerating and enabling criminals.

It seems we can’t go more than a couple weeks without a players getting arrested for drinking and driving.  For example, the St. Louis Rams are still allowing Leonard Little to play football, even after killing someone in a drunk driving incident which he followed up with another DWI (here) arrest.

Even more recently the Rams have shown a complete disregard for the community by their willingness to take a firm stand on behalf of players killing innocent citizens.  Ignoring their past problems, they thought it might be a good idea to bring on a new player with prior DUIs.

No worries to the citizens of St. Louis though, according to the Ram’s GM, he passed the “character” test during background investigations.   I’m sure the friends and family of the deceased are glad to know this player received the all important, “I looked into his eye and saw his character” test.

Of course it’s not just the Rams.  Let’s not forget Dante Stallworth recently entered into the “NFL players who  killed innocent people” club as well.

& as NFL traditions go, drinking and driving is just one of the time honored ones.  Another tradition  is using their strength to assault others.   Domestic violence seems to be the most popular  form of this tradition (here, here, & here), including the amazing amount of courage it takes to beat your babys’ momma with an aluminum mop handle while the kids watch (here).

As bad as all that is by itself, this information truly is a very small percentage of the NFL’s actions as it relates to criminal behavior within their ranks.   The endless stream of examples includes all types of crime including assaulting cops, assaulting security guards, shootings, drug rings, weapon’s charges,  probation violations, coaches assaulting other coaches, and even just plain ole indecent exposure – which in some cases can result in a being forced to register as  sex offender.  There are literally so many available examples of NFL players’ crimes, it’s challenging to pick and choose enough examples to be convincing, while ensuring this post doesn’t end up longer than the health care bill.

Indeed, so much information exists that at least one website is dedicated to tracking it (NFL Crimes News Blog).   A while back they even promised to take down their entire site if they could go 60 days without seeing an arrest posted on ProFootballTalk police blotter.  The closest they’ve gotten is 29 days.

The basic point?  For an organization with such a demonstrable history of ignoring and enabling real crime, their attempt to come off as self-righteous based on someone’s past comments is another perfect example of style over substance.  It would almost be amusing if it didn’t show how shallow our celebrity obsessed culture can be.

Standard Libertarian Disclaimer:  As a private business the NFL can pick and chose its investors at will.  I really don’t care all that much that the NFL pulled Rush’s bid nor would I ever want to take away their rights to do so.

Of course as a corollary to their freedom to chose their investors, we all have the freedom to point out the hypocrisy of such a decision.  When the NFL, the players, and the players’ union collectively run around throwing matches at people while they know full well they are standing in a house full of gun powder & explosives, they deserve nothing more than ridicule.