Detailed Abstractions

Today, MO Congressmen Todd Akin – R (and I’m sure others) released a statement concerning a change the President is making in foreign policy arena:

“The President’s decision to back away from our plans to put missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic effectively abandons two of our allies who had worked hard and taken political risks for the sake of European and American security. The Administration has sent a clear signal to our central and eastern European allies that the United States, under this President, cannot be counted on to stand by our commitments.”

“With the Iranian regime continuing its aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons and Russia’s commitment to reassert its regional hegemony, the United States must strengthen, not weaken, their commitment to the safety of our friends and allies around the world. The technology changes proposed may be of some merit, but the Administration needs to fully brief the Congress and our NATO allies before proceeding with this dramatic change in course.”

“Given our desire and need for a stronger commitment by our NATO allies in Afghanistan, President Obama’s decision to abandon our Polish and Czech allies will only make that effort all the more difficult.”

Not to attack Mr. Akin directly on this view as he is ranking Member of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Expeditionary Forces, the rhetoric is simplifying a more complex issue.  As Russia tries to reassert itself within the region and the question of giving missile defense technology to Poland and Chech is tricky.  These countries are seen by Russia as inside their historical sphere of influence (Eastern Bloc).

Additionally, Russia has used these countries as a man made border to reduce any potential opponents ability to invade.  They do this and are concerned by it because they have no real natural borders such as the US with two oceans.

So while it’s true that this move strengthens Russia, what we need right now is Russia’s help to control Iran from building nukes.  When the UN passes embargo’s against Iran, but Russia and others continue to trade with Iran, we basically haven’t done anything that is likely to deter Iran from their current stated goal of obtaining nuclear weapons.

Realistically and by all known analysis, Iran isn’t anywhere near being able to build an actual weapon.  They are close to having the fuel required, but the technology to actually make that fuel into a weapon is very complex and not something with which they have experience.

Additionally, even if Iran could build a nuclear war head that could result in a very large explosion, they still don’t have good missile technology, circuits capable of withstanding the radiation, and many other technologies required to make all of it useful.

Having said that, Iran is a threat and as a proactive supporter of terrorism, remains a country we have to be cognizant of.

So my personal opinion is that our fear of Iran right this second might be overblown which would make this decision unnecessary, but I also know what I don’t know… like whether Russia has given us assurances of help with Iran, whether the existing publicly available analysis is correct, or any number of other factors which should be used in the calculus for deciding on any given action.

Either way, taking knowns & the unknowns together, the decision itself isn’t as easy as the “abandoning our allies” rhetoric would make one think.

I wrote some on this a few days ago asking whether it was a good sign that challenger to the ruling party was drawing so much interest in Iran (here).  I also noted the possibility of election fraud and my concerns seemed to have come true.

While I will concede that I’m sure some voters wanted to re-elect the crazy guy, the numbers are simply too far apart to believe without further evidence.  According to Iranian government election propaganda officials (here):

Yesterday morning, election officials reported that president Ahmadinejad had received nearly 19 million votes, or about 63 percent of the total, while Mousavi got about 9 million votes, or 34 percent. Two other challengers, Mohsen Rezaie, a conservative former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, got just under 600,000 votes, while Mehdi Karroubi, a liberal former speaker of the Parliament, garnered about 260,000, or 2.5 and 0.88 percent respectively. Turnout was a record 85 percent, officials said.

In a country which has been full of protests over the last few weeks, the idea that the incumbent could pull of 63% of the vote is laughable.  Some Mousavi supporters even go so far as to claim the total number of votes for Mousavi was less than the total number of volunteers who were working for his election.

So protests and strong statements from around the world pore forth (here):

…“These protests are similar to problems at a football match,” Ahmadinejad said at a news conference today in Tehran. “A team wins and the other loses. Accept that your team has lost.”

Ahmadinejad, accused by rival candidates of unnecessarily stoking tensions with the West, may see success at the ballot box as a vindication of his policies….

…

Vice President Joe Biden said “there is some real doubt” about the election results, citing “the way they are suppressing speech, the way they are suppressing crowds.”

“Talks with Iran are not a reward for good behavior,” he added on NBC television’s “Meet the Press.” “Our interests are the same before the election as they are after the election.”…

…

Claiming an electoral fix, Mousavi’s supporters yesterday clashed with ranks of anti-riot police guarding the Interior Ministry in Tehran, which served as the election headquarters.

Protesters set fire to motorbikes belonging to police, who used tear gas and batons to disperse a crowd of several thousand chanting “fraud last night” and “Mousavi, Mousavi, get my vote back.”

“In our questioning, we’re after finding links between the plotters and the foreign media,” the state-run Fars news agency cited Ahmadreza Radan, deputy police chief, as saying at a news conference in the capital today. He dismissed as wrong reports that Mousavi is under house arrest…

What do we really know just yet?  Not much.  While it’s within the realm of possibility the election wasn’t rigged, we are never likely to have much information on either side of the argument and regardless of any potential facts to prove election rigging – the outcome is unlikely to change (here):

…In the likely assumption that Mr Ahmadinejad brazens out his critics and retains his position, observers expect a continuation of his controversial policies. Iranian presidents have limited executive powers, but during his four years in office Mr Ahmadinejad has largely succeeded in reinforcing social strictures that had loosened under his predecessor, Muhammad Khatami, a popular reformist who won consecutive presidential terms but was frequently thwarted by entrenched conservative opposition. Although widely ridiculed by Iran’s large, urban middle class, the incumbent appeals strongly to a broad constituency among the pious poor, and among nationalists who believe his abrasive foreign policy has strengthened Iran’s prestige….

So even assuming the vote was exactly what the population intended, it’s still a sad day for the Iranian people and the world at large. The continuation of the incumbent’s policies will result in further movement away from the international community and further movement towards harsher economic sanctions.

Let’s hope the protests are a beginning sign of an abandonment of Ahmadinejad’s policy on behalf of the Iranian people.  Let’s hope also he continues to garner less support in Iran.

& lastly, let’s hope that those most strongly opposing the government, those brave people willing to face down the government, can stay safe.  While freedom is certainly something people should be willing to die for, let’s hope not many will have to make that sacrifice.

For the next couple of days, the eyes of the world will be on Iran and their upcoming Presidential election.  While Ahmadinejad’s backers include Iran Security forces and state TV, his reformist challenger Mousavi, is still getting out the word through more open forms of communication.

While it’s unlikely at this point to know if the election is not going to be rigged, it is certainly a good thing to see such dynamic debate in the theocratic regime of Iran (here):

They came face-to-face with a similar number of Ahmadinejad’s backers, who were gathering at the Imam Ruhollah Khomeini mosque, with each side shouting slogans and waving their respective flags.

Even with state backing of the current President and refusal of the state to allow the contender any place to hold rallies, the reformers in Iran are still brave enough to speak out (here):

Supporters of Ahmadinejad’s main challenger, former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, had to be more inventive to find a place for their rally. Over the weekend, a government organization refused permission for his campaign to use Tehran’s 120,000-seat Azadi Stadium for a rally originally planned for Sunday. But in less than 24 hours, using text messages and Facebook postings, thousands of Mousavi backers gathered along Vali-e Asr Avenue, Tehran’s 12-mile-long arterial road.

While it’s true that in Iran, the President does not have a lot of power due to the authority of the mullahs and the election will likely be rigged to what the mullahs want to see – it’s still good news to see a petty tyrant, holocaust denier, being diminished in middle eastern politics.

Let’s hope this trend continues.