Posts belonging to Category Science



New Language: Transparency means secretly spying…

In other administration news, WSJ Online is reporting (here):

The federal government is launching an expansive program dubbed “Perfect Citizen” to detect cyber assaults on private companies and government agencies running such critical infrastructure as the electricity grid and nuclear-power plants, according to people familiar with the program….

As a concerned citizen, you might ask yourself… how will this work?

…The surveillance by the National Security Agency, the government’s chief eavesdropping agency, would rely on a set of sensors deployed in computer networks for critical infrastructure that would be triggered by unusual activity suggesting an impending cyber attack, though it wouldn’t persistently monitor the whole system, these people said….

& herein lies the problem…. the internet wasn’t designed to predict or prevent attacks, so the question becomes – how do they plan to do this?

Do they plan to redesign the internet?  Or do they plan to spy on all computers connected?  Combination of both?*

In this age of “transparency” I’m sure we can find out:

….Defense contractor Raytheon Corp. recently won a classified contract for the initial phase of the surveillance effort valued at up to $100 million, said a person familiar with the project.

An NSA spokeswoman said the agency had no information to provide on the program. A Raytheon spokesman declined to comment….

Ahhhh…. that clears it up.  The administration bent on transparency is implementing a secret program to monitor most internet activity without telling anyone what it is.

Please note: I do agree that say specific intrusion detection techniques and encryption would be left out of the public.

But for this administration, the transparent, no more Patriot Act administration, to task the world’s number one cyber-spy agency to secretly monitor internet activity of American citizens without telling those citizens exactly what it’s doing – well, whatever it is, it’s not transparent.

*side bar* To get an idea of cybersecurity threats, how difficult it is to detect without intruding on personal computers, and just an overall great article about a real life cyber-mystery, I highly recommend The Enemy Within published by The Atlantic:

When the Conficker computer “worm” was unleashed on the world in November 2008, cyber-security experts didn’t know what to make of it. It infiltrated millions of computers around the globe. It constantly checks in with its unknown creators. It uses an encryption code so sophisticated that only a very few people could have deployed it. For the first time ever, the cyber-security elites of the world have joined forces in a high-tech game of cops and robbers, trying to find Conficker’s creators and defeat them. The cops are failing. And now the worm lies there, waiting ……

The full article is well worth the time.

Infinite Monkey Theorems 20100617

Via The Big PictureIs WordPress As Big As Guttenberg?Almost.:

WordPress, the blogging software that powers The Big Picture along with 11 million other blogs and has 256 million unique visitors to its hosted sites, may not be as revolutionary as movable type but it is a crucial element in what has made it possible for blogging to grow from a hobby into a major threat to the mainstream media….

Via Reason.com – In England it’s so bad, cops rob you! (here):

Police in Exeter, England, say some residents make life too easy for burglars, and to prove it, they’ve burgled around 50 homes themselves. The police look for places with unlocked doors or open windows, and then they slip inside and put valuables into a bag for the owners to find.

Via Cato – Cisneros, the Clinton Administration’s head of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) explains how the government had little to do with the housing crisis – Cato responds (here):

In a recent speech to real estate interests, former Clinton HUD secretary Henry Cisnerospreposterously claimed that the recent housing meltdown “occurred not out of a governmental push, but out of a hijacking of the homeownership process by some unscrupulous interests.”

The only criticisms Cisneros could muster for the government’s housing policies over the past 20 years were that regulations weren’t tough enough and it should have focused more onrental subsidies.

Imagine that… government officials acting as if they  weren’t effecting anything even though their entire intention was to affect the housing market.  Their entire reason for being is to affect the housing market.

Seems oddly similar to recent reports from the White House on the oil spill.  Listen carefully and you’ll hear this:  ”We have been in charge since the incident occurred, but everything that is happening is someone else’s fault.”

Speaking of which, Obama’s approval rating down (here via Gallup).  In late January of this year, 66% approved, only 19% disapproved.  The latest figures show 49% approval, 44% disapprove.  That was quick…

Lastly, but certainly not least – great pictures of the birth of a star (here via Yale):

New Haven, Conn. — Astronomers have glimpsed what could be the youngest known star at the very moment it is being born. Not yet fully developed into a true star, the object is in the earliest stages of star formation and has just begun pulling in matter from a surrounding envelope of gas and dust, according to a new study that appears in the current issue of the Astrophysical Journal.

Infinite Monkey Theorems 20100427

The 9th Circuit strikes again…. via LA Times (here):

SAN FRANCISCO — A sharply divided federal appeals court in California on Monday exposed Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to billions of dollars in legal damages when it ruled a massive class action lawsuit alleging gender discrimination over pay for female workers can go to trial….

Now I don’t claim to be a lawyer and haven’t even played one on tv, but part of the dissent seems obvious to me:

…Judge Sandra Ikuta wrote a blistering dissent, joined by four of her colleagues.

“No court has ever certified a class like this one, until now. And with good reason,” Ikuta wrote. “In this case, six women who have worked in thirteen of Wal-Mart’s 3,400 stores seek to represent every woman who has worked in those stores over the course of the last decade — a class estimated in 2001 to include more than 1.5 million women.”…

Maybe they like being overturned (here from 2007)?

…The 9th Circuit also has a long-running streak as the most overturned, which went unbroken this year. The Supreme Court reviewed 22 cases from the 9th Circuit last term, and it reversed or vacated 19 times….

Via WSJ, The Big Brown Union Bailout

If you can’t beat ‘em, have Congress hobble ‘em. That’s the motto of some in corporate America, and Exhibit A might be United Parcel Service’s campaign to get Washington to impose its labor woes on rival Federal Express. This would be one more union bailout at the expense of business competition and economic efficiency….

This is a continuation of this administration’s policies to pay off unions at the expense of others (DA posts here).

Via Reason.com, GM’s Phony Bailout Payback

Uncle Sam gave GM $49.5 billion last summer in aid to finance its bankruptcy….  So when Whitacre publishes a column with the headline, “The GM Bailout: Paid Back in Full,” most ordinary mortals unfamiliar with bailout minutia would assume that he is alluding to the entire $49.5 billion. That, however, is far from the case….

I say if you want to buy American, buy Ford – no bailout money and still going strong.

& cool science news via e!Science (here):

In a study published as an Advance Online Publication in the journal Nature Nanotechnology on Sunday, physicists at Ohio University and the University of Hamburg in Germany present the first images of spin in action….

Infinite Monkey Theorems 20100329

Proving how little we truly understand about addiction, a new study (via UK Telegraph here):

Bingeing on junk food is as addictive as smoking or taking drugs and could cause compulsive eating and obesity, a study has found.

According to the research, rats when given junk food, will crave it in a similar fashion to much harder drugs, as it all uses the same pleasure center:

…As these pleasure centres become less and less responsive the animals quickly develop compulsive overeating habits, consuming larger quantities of high-calorie, high-fat foods until they become obese.

The very same changes occur in the brains of rats that over consume cocaine or heroin…

I wonder if this will put to rest the nicotine is addictive as cocaine meme?  Or possibly destroy the idea of heroin addiction altogether?  Whatever it does do in the end, it should give us pause anytime we hear “as addictive as…”

John Stossel on government testing (here).  Among the other illuminating information, you can read about GAO’s audit of energy star products, including this gem:

…The GAO attached a feather duster to a space heater, sent the photo to the EPA, and got approval in just 11 days…

All told:

GAO sustained Energy Star certifications for 15 bogus products, including a gas-powered alarm clock.

Via WSJ, In War Between States and Feds, Utah Strikes Latest Blow:

All is not well between the states and the federal government….states in recent months have signed sovereignty statements….last week, more than a dozen states sued to strike down the new federal health-care law…..Now….Utah Governor Gary Herbert on Saturday authorized the use of eminent domain to take some of the U.S. government’s most valuable parcels….

This should get interesting.

Lastly, an interesting idea via HBR (here).  Asking CEO Tim Brown:

…what does it take to bring about such mass behavior shifts? Are there approaches that businesses could use, too, to influence behaviors on a micro level, and gain benefits on a macro one?…

Now That’s Some Real Science

If you read enough media reports about “science” and their predictions, you like I are probably struck by three things:  we seem to invest lots of money on things we already know, we also seem to invest lots of money in things which are stupid, and I still don’t have my flying car.

As with most things, there is real science in the world, just woefully lack of reporting.  Here’s two things that are sure to benefit society over the long run:

  • via Marginal Revolution, insurance companies are beginning to use data analysis to pro-actively tell insurers medical tests they should contemplate (here):

In Hawaii, Kaiser Permanente has started a pilot project that churn through its database of patient data to predict which patients might need which tests – and then sends individuals email alerts suggesting they come in for a test or checkup….

Now this of course could be fraught with potential privacy concerns, but the technology is available, with independent audits, to allow this process without allowing the company access to specific individuals and their specific risks.  It’s a start though and oddly enough, it didn’t require the federal government.

  • & via Popular Science, a true miracle, beer without hangovers (here):

…A new study suggests that we could quite easily engineer our tipple to help us break down alcohol faster, reducing that morning-after sensation of intense pain (or intense regret) by simply adding more oxygen to our booze….

Of course societies aversion to others using drugs isn’t a pragmatic one, but a belief in the morality of those who don’t partake versus the immorality of those who do.  So my guess is that if this turns out to be true, they will attempt to outlaw as reducing negative consequences can only lead to more immoral behavior.

For an example of this thinking:  via Reason.com FDA to Ban Electronic Cigarettes.  According to the FDA:

Our concern is that this might introduce nonusers to nicotine use.

Jacob Sullum’s (the author) obvious question:

And what if it did? Separated from the dangers of smoking, nicotine use is not a big health concern.

Let’s hope the government will not interfere with either of these innovations.

Infinite Monkey Theorems 20100316

  • I think there is still a health care debate even though the bully pulpit isn’t wanting to increase attention to this, but writer Michael F. Cannon from the Cato Institute diligently continues to shed light on the issue.  As one of the best writers on the subject I recommend everything he has written or papers he has published on the subject.  For now, he has a three part series worth the time for anyone interested in learning more: Questions for Thoughtful Obama Care Supporters (Part I, Part II, Part III)
  • It might not matter, the health care bill hated by all might be pushed through with various legal and procedural maneuvering.  here via Cato
  • Interesting medical research showing correlation: As girth grows, risk of sudden cardiac death shrinks.  I question their use of BMI to identify normal/underweight as as 6’4” person can weight as little as 160 and still be normal (chart), but hopefully it will help them understand that stats are useful tools, but for things such as medicine…. due to the unique nature of us all, the future is individually built therapies, not government programs to change the BMI of an entire nation.

The New York Times headline says Dodd’s Bill “Adds Layers of Oversight”.

Just what we need: 1,336 pages of additional “layers.”  Senator Dodd is as ignorant as he is arrogant.

  • Cornell MBA student says bet against Warren Buffett (here via WSJ).  Not saying I agree, but I do agree with WSJ – always nice to see someone attempting to break conventional wisdom.

Jon Stewart on CRU Emails

Junk Science, Celebrities & Critical Thinking

Weeks ago in a discussion with some colleagues, someone posed an interesting question:  “Do talk shows like Oprah’s have any real negative impacts?”

At first thought, I thought no.  Her ideas are mostly superficial and without critical thought, but is she really changing minds?  What we do know is that most of the people who watch these shows, or any other talk/political show, are generally seeking out information for which their beliefs already align.  Our tendency as humans is to do this – to seek out others who are similar in thought and background – to keep us comfortable with our thoughts & beliefs.

However, I don’t watch Oprah so I’m not familiar  with the consistency of her programming.  From that conversation I went to see what exactly Oprah does after book clubs and working out and found her anti-science stance can and does indeed harm others.

In a great article detailed by Newsweek, they demonstrated Oprah’s movement into the pseudo-medical realm with shows providing powerful anecdotes, while ignoring true scientific study to the contrary (whole thing here).  With the sub-headline of Wish Away Cancer! Get A Lunchtime Face-Lift! Eradicate Autism! Turn Back The Clock! Thin Your Thighs! Cure Menopause! Harness Positive Energy! Erase Wrinkles! Banish Obesity! Live Your Best Life Ever!, the document Oprah’s true harm to her audience.  First Suzanne Somers:

…Each morning, the 62-year-old actress and self-help author rubs a potent estrogen cream into the skin on her arm. She smears progesterone on her other arm two weeks a month.

…According to Somers, the hormones, which are synthesized from plants instead of the usual mare’s urine (disgusting but true), are all natural and, unlike conventional hormones, virtually risk-free (not even close to true, but we’ll get to that in a minute).

Next come the pills. She swallows 60 vitamins and other preparations every day….

…In addition, she wears “nanotechnology patches” to help her sleep, lose weight and promote “overall detoxification.” If she drinks wine, she goes to her doctor to rejuvenate her liver with an intravenous drip of vitamin C. If she’s exposed to cigarette smoke, she has her blood chemically cleaned with chelation therapy. In the time that’s left over, she eats right and exercises, and relieves stress by standing on her head. Somers makes astounding claims about the ability of hormones to treat almost anything that ails the female body. She believes they block disease and will double her life span. “I know I look like some kind of freak and fanatic,” she said. “But I want to be there until I’m 110, and I’m going to do what I have to do to get there.”…

For Oprah’s part, she did allow some doctors into the discussion, but severely limited their ability to affect the discussion:

That was apparently good enough for Oprah. “Many people write Suzanne off as a quackadoo,” she said. “But she just might be a pioneer.” Oprah acknowledged that Somers’s claims “have been met with relentless criticism” from doctors. Several times during the show she gave physicians an opportunity to dispute what Somers was saying. But it wasn’t quite a fair fight. The doctors who raised these concerns were seated down in the audience and had to wait to be called on. Somers sat onstage next to Oprah, who defended her from attack. “Suzanne swears by bioidenticals and refuses to keep quiet. She’ll take on anyone, including any doctor who questions her.”…

As with many of Oprah’s crusades, the anti-science crusade wasn’t just about hormone treatments which are proven harmful, but to give Jenny McCarthy a voice to go after vaccines, which are truly helpful:

…In 2007, Oprah invited Jenny McCarthy, the Playboy model and actress, to describe her struggle to find help for her young son. When he was 2½, Evan suffered a series of seizures. A neurologist told McCarthy he was autistic. “So what do you think triggered the autism?” Oprah asked McCarthy. “I know you have a theory.”

McCarthy is certain that her son contracted autism from the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination he received as a baby. She told Oprah that the morning he went in for his checkup, her instincts told her not to allow the doctor to give him the vaccine. “I said to the doctor, I have a very bad feeling about this shot. This is the autism shot, isn’t it? And he said no, that is ridiculous; it is a mother’s desperate attempt to blame something on autism. And he swore at me.” The nurse gave Evan the shot. “And not soon thereafter,” McCarthy said, “boom, soul gone from his eyes.”…

Again, she’s follows the same modus operandi, lots of targeted emotional and anecdotal discussions (read: propaganda), followed up with very little in the way of scientific evidence:

…But back on the Oprah show, McCarthy’s charges went virtually unchallenged. Oprah praised McCarthy’s bravery and plugged her book, but did not invite a physician or scientist to explain to her audience the many studies that contradict the vaccines-autism link. Instead, Oprah read a brief statement from the Centers for Disease Control saying there was no science to prove a connection and that the government was continuing to study the problem. But McCarthy got the last word. “My science is named Evan, and he’s at home. That’s my science.”…

The question I think all this raises, is have we gone to a point where civility is seen as more important that truths.  You see, I think most of us would have a hard time going against Ms. McCarthy.  Due to her tragic circumstances, we can easily see in ourselves the need to find the answer which others can’t seem to find.  We want things to make sense, in a world with more randomness that we are willing to admit.

But should this civility prevent us from saying what’s true?  You might have strong beliefs about something, and you might even be able to bring self-serving anecdotal evidence to bear, but none of that matters.  In the long run, Ms. McCarthy’s beliefs are not only irrelevant, but should be generally dismissed as they come from an uneducated (on her topic of choice anyway) and grief stricken celebrity.

Instead of reason winning out however, the power of celebrity, combined with the power of wanting more concrete answers to life’s questions the crusade against life saving vaccinations continues forward.  From Wired:

To hear his enemies talk, you might think Paul Offit is the most hated man in America. A pediatrician in Philadelphia, he is the coinventor of a rotavirus vaccine that could save tens of thousands of lives every year. Yet environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. slams Offit as a “biostitute” who whores for the pharmaceutical industry. Actor Jim Carrey calls him a profiteer and distills the doctor’s attitude toward childhood vaccination down to this chilling mantra: “Grab ‘em and stab ‘em.” Recently, Carrey and his girlfriend, Jenny McCarthy, went on CNN’s Larry King Live and singled out Offit’s vaccine, RotaTeq, as one of many unnecessary vaccines, all administered, they said, for just one reason: “Greed.”

…So what has this award-winning 58-year-old scientist done to elicit such venom? He boldly states — in speeches, in journal articles, and in his 2008 book Autism’s False Prophets — that vaccines do not cause autism or autoimmune disease or any of the other chronic conditions that have been blamed on them. He supports this assertion with meticulous evidence. And he calls to account those who promote bogus treatments for autism — treatments that he says not only don’t work but often cause harm….

When reality demonstrates that many people ignore scientific evidence and their facts are replaced with celebrity hubris and propaganda, it should be a sign that all of us should take the time to understand where our true beliefs emanate.

Because please know, while many might read this and think, “that’s not me”, they mean that in a narrow sense as this is part of the human condition which we all share.  Only the truly arrogant among us can believe they can escape the human condition.

For those brave souls willing to go beyond our tendencies, I suggest we should all truly question our deepest beliefs in the face of new or competing information.  Anything less does a disservice to you, your family, and society at large.