Why is it so important?

Easy… because without being able to spend more money than we can realize in revenue through taxation, we’re all going to die.  Just look around, this theoretically historically unprecedented permanently damaging possibility is sure to end the Republic as we know it:

President who tells us our senior citizens and military members will not get paid….

Bernake warns of catostrophy…

For others, our national security is at stake…. in fact, Al Qaeda itself might attack just because of this!

& on and on….

 With all of that looming, it’s not wonder someone has to be at fault….

There are alternative answers to defaulting itself, for instance let’s get rid of the ceiling altogether.  Or maybe, since a five dollar treasury bond and a five dollar bill are virtually the equivalent, why not give out more IOUs in a different form thereby removing the need for the ceiling in the first place?

But those ideas are centrist, so largely ignored and with a problem this large… someone has to be to blame.

So who is at fault?

Maybe the Tea Party’s fault?  Or maybe, like much of everything else, it’s Bush’s fault?  How about Governor Norquist?!?!

Or maybe there is no maybe.  Ask the brilliant policy minds over at The Rolling Stones, and they’ll tell you, that without question it’s the GOP’s fault.

For the logic minded, one might contend that the President, who refused to pass this perfect budget a year ago when his party controlled both legislative houses shares some blame.

But what do I know…. according to some Barack supporters, his only problem is being too much like the Big Gipper, the famous “let’s raise taxes” President…

The issue is, when you push predictions of doom and gloom for some scenario, blame has to be affixed quickly and preferably without relation to actual facts as that just muddies the waters.  Nope, the goal for almost every writer, seems to be scare tactics followed by blame.

There are a couple who have offered advice.  HBR for one had an interesting post about needing a moderator, perhaps Adam Smith.  It’s not an unpleasant thought and certainly a brilliant economic mind serving as moderator cannot help, but what most struck me about their advice is the same thing that struck me about most of those pieces blaming this or that: it misses who is truly responsible.

For when HBR states the Debt Ceiling Debate needs a moderator, I have to stop and say, they already do: the American public.  Certainly one could make the argument that the current moderators are abdicating their responsibilities and I might agree, but as much as one can delegate tasks, authority and responsibility cannot be delegated.

So sure, the public collectively can give moderator powers to Adam Smith or someone similar but alive, however the responsibility for the consequences of that process will still be the American people.

So…. is there a debate crisis?

Maybe not… as while many of us individually and seemingly ever single writer might view this whole process as out of control; seeing the whole thing as a demonstration in nothing more than the problems with this country, these are just mere opinions.

In all honesty, I’m sympathetic to that view.  However, the market place of ideas is free.  & If you analyze politics like one does the market, with the idea being the result cannot be wrong as the market is not wrong…

Then I think based upon the current political result I would submit a large enough percentage of voters have already cast their vote to continue the political infighting, applaud Pyrrhic victories, and any number of other actions which are designed to benefit their collective and not the average individual.

As proof of this reality, see incumbency rates, or polls which say cut things, but say no to all questions about what to cut, the current press articles being created because people are buying them, and more.  But even without those facts, the logic is simple: the current debate has to be ok with society at large because a free people is watching it happen and doing nothing, in a concerted effort, to substantially change anything.

So by virtue of its mere existence, it is the correct debate needed at this time.

& if it’s not?

Well, as Lincoln stated <paraphrased here>  ”As a nation of free men, we will live forever, or die by suicide.”

Infinite Monkey Theorems

Headlines 

Worth Reading 

….or at least pondering and forgetting….. 

From the First Amendment Center, the new Alabama governor displays amazing religious intolerance and arrogance.  I thought this was 2011….. (whole thing here): 

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley told a church crowd just moments into his new administration that those who have not accepted Jesus as their savior are not his brothers and sisters, shocking some critics who questioned yesterday whether he could be fair to non-Christians. 

“Anybody here today who has not accepted Jesus Christ as their savior, I’m telling you, you’re not my brother and you’re not my sister, and I want to be your brother,” Bentley said Jan. 17, his inauguration day, according to The Birmingham News. 

From the Obama Administration: Remember Obamacare?  Which was going to add 39 million previously uninsured people to the status of insured (here via CBO)?  

Well, here we are in 2011 – a time when Obamacare is *not* implemented and the provisions that have gone into effect only went into affect on January 1, 2011. 

Apparently that’s a very long time though….. as according to the WhiteHouse via the Department of Health and Human Services, repealing Obamacare will put 129 million insured at risk (here via HealthCare.gov). 

Seriously?  I wonder if DHHS is still accepting information on those (here via DA) dealing in misinformation with regards to Obamacare? 

From Wired, a meaningless, and based upon presented evidence, a false headline [emphasis added] Supreme Court Upholds Intrusive Government Background Checks.   

The actual article?  

The Supreme Court ruled that private contractors working for the government cannot be shielded from background investigations based upon a right to privacy.  That government contractors can in fact, by virtue that they are basically government employees, be treated just as any other federal employee. 

Maybe it’s just me, but subjecting yourself to a background check that resembles the exact same background check of others you work with doesn’t seem to be intrusive.  

Which is irregardless for Wired anyway, as even *if* this decision could be argued logically as intrusion, the article doesn’t even attempt to offer proof of such an assertion. 

From eScience News, US Office of Naval Research announces big news on the “Cool Things That Kill” front (here): 

Scientists at Los Alamos National Lab, N.M., have achieved a remarkable breakthrough with the Office of Naval Research’s Free Electron Laser (FEL) program, demonstrating an injector capable of producing the electrons needed to generate megawatt-class laser beams for the Navy’s next-generation weapon system. 

Artist's Rendering "PHALANX WITH LASER CANNON" Source: Raytheon

To put a little context into what megawatt means (1,000 kilowatts), Scientific American reports in July 2010 (here): 

In a grainy, black-and-white video that looks like a home movie of a UFO attack a sleek aircraft streaks through the sky one minute, only to burst into flames the next and plummet into the sea…. 

Using a 32-kilowatt laser (article cont’d): 

The defense contractor says it depicts part of a test conducted in May during which the U.S. Navy used a solid-state laser to shoot down unmanned aerial vehicles over the Pacific Ocean…. 

& Lastly – ESO’s Hidden Treasure Contest reveals winner (here): 

M78 for ESO Processing contest. WFI camera on 2.2m telescope

Hidden Treasures gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search ESO’s vast archives of astronomical data for a well-hidden cosmic gem. Astronomy enthusiast Igor Chekalin from Russia won the first prize in this difficult but rewarding challenge…. 

More amazing astronomical artwork here: Top 100 from ESO

This time up, it’s Representative Peter King of NY.  Not to be outdone by Paul Krugman’s idiocy, Mr. King is trying to parlay one lone gunmen into a brand new set of gun control laws (here):

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) called for the gun-free zone in the immediate vicinity of federal officials…. he planned to introduce legislation next week incorporating his proposal….

It should seem obvious that this legislation has little chance of preventing or even acting as a deterrent to another such terrorist act, but not surprising the legislation is being pushed anyway.

As is usual with any legislation, it existed prior to the ‘crisis’ which was used as reasoning to pass it right now.  Truly the only way in which this is related to the Arizona shooting at all is in timing (article cont’d):

But many lawmakers have been concerned about the safety of themselves and their aides since Saturday’s shootings in Tucson and might be more open to King’s proposal than they would have been a week ago.

In a more perfect world, maybe we could point to this as the exception of a reasoned public debate, unfortunately this is just one of the idiotic ideas being pushed.

Their commonality?  Almost all arguments brought to the public so far ignore the very essence of a society: its culture.

Which is insulting to a degree; to think that given the wrong language or opportunity to carry a weapon near any sacred politicians, the average citizen might well use violence as a standard debate tactic.  However in America, and indeed most civilized societies, a basic thought is held by the vast majority of citizens is that the proper response to speech is speech.

For instance, we all know exactly what it means to say “sticks and stones” and as a society, we have a pretty firm belief that no matter what someone says to you, no matter how disgusting, no matter how insulting, violence is never an appropriate response to words.

To juxtapose, let’s look at the Islamists.

Their  religious and moral leaders constantly tell followers that violence is an appropriate solution to perceived or real slights.  They argue not just that violence is an answer, but specifically that it is a respectable solution even when it’s being used against those who are only using speech.

Remember the Mohammed cartoons?  That was 2005, but even in mid-2010 a Islamist religious leader was still pushing the idea of killing as a punishment against those exercising free speech (from Stratfor here):

In July 2010, AQAP released the first edition of its English-language magazine Inspire. One of the articles in that issue was written by the American-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who wrote, “If you have the right to slander the Messenger of Allah, we have the right to defend him. If it is part of your freedom of speech to defame Muhammad it is part of our religion to fight you.” He added: “Assassinations, bombings, and acts of arson are all legitimate forms of revenge against a system that relishes the sacrilege of Islam in the name of freedom.”

Additionally, the Pakistani clerics’ warnings after the assassination of a regional governor killed due to his support for repealing blasphemy laws (here via Rueters):

“More than 500 scholars of the Jamaat-e-Ahl-e-Sunnat have advised Muslims not to offer the funeral prayers of Governor Punjab Salman Taseer nor try to lead the prayers,” the group said in a statement.

“Also, there should be no expression of grief or sympathy on the death of the governor, as those who support blasphemy of the Prophet are themselves indulging in blasphemy.”

So whether you hear others calling all your opponents rhetoric vitriol as Mr. Krugman chose to do, or calling for irrelevant legislation like Mr. King, or like Mr. Boehner and many, many others, just calling for more civility based upon this incident, know each idea misses the basic point.

We are already adults and already know how to disagree without violence.

Other societies however, whose culture and moral leaders tell them that assassinations and suicide bombings are perfectly acceptable forms of retaliation in response to “religious slander” (note slander means speech)…. well then. Talk of being armed or getting your pitchforks could have an entirely different result.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Taking another step toward mending his relationship with the business community, President Barack Obama will order a review of federal regulations with an eye toward getting rid of those that stifle job creation and hurt economic growth.

Upon hearing this news, I was immediately reminded of the Simpsons’ episode.  The episode is about NASA, who having problems with funding, decides to put an average man in space for marketing purposes.  The press conference (here):

Scientist: Ladies and gentlemen and members of the press.  I’d like to
           present the new generation of NASA astronauts: the average
           American.
            [Curtain rises to show Homer wearing a "Hail to the Chef"
           apron and Barney dressed as a golfer]
Reporter: Jim Wallace, Associated Press.  [clears throat] Is this a
           joke?
Scientist: [cheery] Far from it, Jim.  One of these men will prove space
           travel is within the reach of the common man.
Reporter: Toby Hunter, Minneapolis Star.  No really, is this a joke?
Scientist: No, Toby, and no more questions about whether this is a joke.
            [Everyone lowers their hand, dejected]

Please don’t misunderstand – I’m hoping, like a lot of people, that the President is serious about this.  However, almost every single action taken by this administration shows an absolute love of controlling by regulations, even when no obvious reason for doing so exists.

This is after all the same President who gave us an executive order which prevented anyone from drilling for oil offshore due to one oil spill on a platform owned by BP (DA post here). 

This was all prior to the government report released late last year, which held BP accountable, but even after blaming BP for the entirety of the incident, they announced a month later continued blanket regulations against an all of the industry.

Even the President’s own fact finding commission is wondering what many others questioned before – what is this continued ban is supposed to fix?  They plan to press the administration on the issue soon.

And that’s just regulations for a small part of the energy industry.  This is also the same administration who pushed for financial reform.  Financial reform which as pushed before they had anyone had any idea what took place.  The reform which included controls on market segments which are known to have little to no impact on the financial crisis like hedge funds, derivatives, executive compensation and more (here & here).  The reform which has now been passed, but will fail to do one of the most crucial elements of any reform claiming to prevent “too big too fail” – (here):

The Act does not deal with the mispricing of pervasive government guarantees throughout the financial sector. This will allow many financial firms to finance their activities at below-market rates and take on excessive risk.

Which is all outside of the elephant in the room, health care reform.   Which, as far as I’m aware, is the first attempt by any US administration to purposefully regulate an American citizen while they do absolutely nothing.

Which is also outside of them spending 1 trillion dollars to regulate economic activity towards job growth (fail), outside of trying to regulate buying habits of  car buyers and home buyers.  This is even without discussing government ownership GM.

So…. Mr. President, with all due respect, is this a joke?

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 34,000 to 388,000 for the week ending December 25th. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, a better indication of the underlying trend in labor markets, slipped to 414,000 from 426,500 the prior week….

Now for those of you unfamiliar with the end of the year in the United States, there’s this little holiday known as Christmas.  & with religious aspects aside, usually during Christmas in the US we see a great deal of increase employment due to need based solely upon Christmas cheer spending.  There are part time employees hired in all kinds of capacities such as catalog companies, larger retail stores, and even in restaurants as they see increased traffic as well.

Many actually interested in publishing accurate information, mentioned this repeatedly (article cont’d):

…This report needs to be viewed with a degree of caution given the significant volatility associated with the seasonal factors surrounding the Christmas holiday period and uncertainty as to whether these declines will be sustained….

Other accurate voices also noted another corollary; jobless claims drop for other reasons (here via ChicagoNow):

The national jobless rate for December dropped to 9.4% from 9.8% the previous month.  Unfortunately, the decline in jobless claims only dropped because 260,000 American job seekers stopped looking for employment last month,…

But you know - there’s reality & then there’s politics.  So many voices, quite pleased with a minor decrease of unemployment claims and quite willing to ignore the volatile season and other factors were ready to go to work.  After all, the numbers seem good for the President (here):

President Obama got some early New Year’s cheer Thursday — a positive report on jobless claims that increases the chances that next week will bring the first drop in the unemployment rate since June….

So why shouldn’t he market the glowing numbers on his website (here):

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, a positive sign that the U.S. job market is slowly improving….

With headlines everywhere reading this is the lowest rate in jobless claims since 2008 (here – they have pretty graphs too):

….The traditional interpretation suggests that the U.S. labor market, which has been a headwind for the economy, is improving as the economy slowly accelerates into the new year. New applications for unemployment assistance decreased by 34,000 to 388,000 (week ending December 25th). That is the lowest level since July 2008….

Prompting Mr. Obama himself to declare success (here via Bloomberg):

President Barack Obama said U.S. job growth is improving after a government report showed employers added 103,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent in December from 9.8 percent in November.

In his weekly radio and Internet address, Obama today credited steps taken by his administration to reduce taxes and encourage business investment with helping to restore economic confidence and boost hiring….

The problem is that none of this matches reality. As was noted by many when the unemployment numbers were looking just great…. some employees stopped looking for jobs altogether and others were hired only for seasonal work. So the natural uptick is here via The Street:

The number of Americans filing unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week, the Labor Department said early Thursday….

Don’t misunderstand, even with the uptick in jobless claims, there are still things that seem positive overall (article cont’d):

The four-week moving average in initial claims, which smoothes the volatility in week-to-week reports, was 416,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 411,000….

Irregardless of what politicians and pundits say (even Nobel Prize winning ones), no matter how many people, no matter their collective resumes or IQs, no matter their fervor, and even for POTUS, or the Chair of the Fed Reserve, or their positions in life don’t matter to the two, very real things we actually know:

1) It’s too early to tell whether the volatility of the recent holiday season will or does have any impact on unemployment trends as a whole.

2) Even if the trend holds and the President claiming credit turns out to be prescient versus premature, let’s not forget.  We spent 1 trillion more dollars to keep the unemployment rate below 8% & by 2011, it should be around 7% (here via DA):

As all politicians told us not too long ago, without passing several “stimulus” bills quickly… way too quick to read (anyone remember the Patriot Act?), everyone would soon be looking for jobs as unemployment sky rockets.  Remember the 1.5 million jobs that would be saved?

So in the end, time will tell us what we know: increased regulations and taxes strangle business and decrease job growth and economic output.

For now, just remember the people telling you how great US economics are trending and how responsible their policies are for these successes are still a mile behind where they told us we’d be just a couple years ago.  As one other thing we do know, we’re still doing worse off than the government told us we would be doing had they one absolutely nothing (~10% higher UE than they predicted).

& when noting the fact that the stimulus they begged for and got; things make it look that much worse as we’re about ~50% higher than the government prediction:

Source: Michael’s Comments blog