Articles from July 2011



Debt Ceiling Debate Crisis – Is It Real?

Well.  It’s official.  Not only do we have an economic crisis, but now we have an economic debate crisis…. apparently that is.

Why is it so important?

Easy… because without being able to spend more money than we can realize in revenue through taxation, we’re all going to die.  Just look around, this theoretically historically unprecedented permanently damaging possibility is sure to end the Republic as we know it:

President who tells us our senior citizens and military members will not get paid….

Bernake warns of catostrophy

For others, our national security is at stake…. in fact, Al Qaeda itself might attack just because of this!

& on and on….

 With all of that looming, it’s not wonder someone has to be at fault….

There are alternative answers to defaulting itself, for instance let’s get rid of the ceiling altogether.  Or maybe, since a five dollar treasury bond and a five dollar bill are virtually the equivalent, why not give out more IOUs in a different form thereby removing the need for the ceiling in the first place?

But those ideas are centrist, so largely ignored and with a problem this large… someone has to be to blame.

So who is at fault?

Maybe the Tea Party’s fault?  Or maybe, like much of everything else, it’s Bush’s fault?  How about Governor Norquist?!?!

Or maybe there is no maybe.  Ask the brilliant policy minds over at The Rolling Stones, and they’ll tell you, that without question it’s the GOP’s fault.

For the logic minded, one might contend that the President, who refused to pass this perfect budget a year ago when his party controlled both legislative houses shares some blame.

But what do I know…. according to some Barack supporters, his only problem is being too much like the Big Gipper, the famous “let’s raise taxes” President…

The issue is, when you push predictions of doom and gloom for some scenario, blame has to be affixed quickly and preferably without relation to actual facts as that just muddies the waters.  Nope, the goal for almost every writer, seems to be scare tactics followed by blame.

There are a couple who have offered advice.  HBR for one had an interesting post about needing a moderator, perhaps Adam Smith.  It’s not an unpleasant thought and certainly a brilliant economic mind serving as moderator cannot help, but what most struck me about their advice is the same thing that struck me about most of those pieces blaming this or that: it misses who is truly responsible.

For when HBR states the Debt Ceiling Debate needs a moderator, I have to stop and say, they already do: the American public.  Certainly one could make the argument that the current moderators are abdicating their responsibilities and I might agree, but as much as one can delegate tasks, authority and responsibility cannot be delegated.

So sure, the public collectively can give moderator powers to Adam Smith or someone similar but alive, however the responsibility for the consequences of that process will still be the American people.

So…. is there a debate crisis?

Maybe not… as while many of us individually and seemingly ever single writer might view this whole process as out of control; seeing the whole thing as a demonstration in nothing more than the problems with this country, these are just mere opinions.

In all honesty, I’m sympathetic to that view.  However, the market place of ideas is free.  & If you analyze politics like one does the market, with the idea being the result cannot be wrong as the market is not wrong…

Then I think based upon the current political result I would submit a large enough percentage of voters have already cast their vote to continue the political infighting, applaud Pyrrhic victories, and any number of other actions which are designed to benefit their collective and not the average individual.

As proof of this reality, see incumbency rates, or polls which say cut things, but say no to all questions about what to cut, the current press articles being created because people are buying them, and more.  But even without those facts, the logic is simple: the current debate has to be ok with society at large because a free people is watching it happen and doing nothing, in a concerted effort, to substantially change anything.

So by virtue of its mere existence, it is the correct debate needed at this time.

& if it’s not?

Well, as Lincoln stated <paraphrased here>  ”As a nation of free men, we will live forever, or die by suicide.”

QE3? Really?

QE3?  Really?

What has the Fed in QE1 & 2 already spent?

A couple trillion, right?  IIRC – 800 billion here, a trillion there I think.

They spent it buying toxic assets, clunkers (link below… but… only in America is destroying 2 billions dollars in real property combined with giving people money to buy cars when we’re going broke is argued openly to be considered a success), GM, Fannie, AIG…. etc, etc, etc, but they have yet to tell anyone exactly where any of it went.

They have actively resisted calls for auditing.  & they have done this even while they argue how much all this was needed.  While they go to the American public and claim with all sincerity that if it weren’t for this spending, we’d all be so much worse off.

& they do all of this so without as even a mention of what the hell they actually did…. other than spend a sh!t ton of money we had to borrow and will force future tax payers to deal with.

Think of this in other contexts…

Imagine if I said, I’m selling a service to you, whereby I promise your economic opportunities will increase based upon the money you give me and the things my expertise will spend it on. But as part of our deal, you give me X dollars a month for retainer and you’re never allowed to know what I spend that money on.

As a matter of fact, if you even question me, I’ll respond defensively about how I saved you from losing your current wealth and how things would be absolutely horrible if you hadn’t paid me and stopping now…. well, you will just die.

Add to that, that all of my prior predictions about the economy and what would happen and what QEs would do…. are ALL WRONG. (more…)