Speculative Journalism
August 5, 2009
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Posted by Michael S. Langston
Mark this as reason #6358, why most media outlets prove my point that “journalist” is becoming a pejorative term.
What happened?
Former President Bill Clinton, and a entourage of former Clinton advisers, went to North Korea in order to seek release of two American journalists who were sentenced to 12 years hard labor for allegedly crossing the border (here & here)
North Korean dictator, and all around worthless despot, released the two women into the former President’s hands (here).
The President, with the two journalists held a joint press conference as soon as the plane landed (here).
What is the current media speculation?
Well, of course it differs by source. The left leaning sites tend to applaud the former & current Presidents, while those leaning towards the right wonder what damage this might have done.
This is true, not just of blogs known for their inability to think critically such as The Daily Kos or The Free Republic, but also main stream news outlets.
From the WSJ:
…But the important question going forward is whether Mr. Clinton’s visit was merely the down payment Kim extracted from the Obama Administration for a potentially larger set of American concessions….
& even if it was a private meeting without input from the current administration:
…Yet Mr. Clinton’s visit is a message unto itself. It will bolster Kim’s bid to dissolve the six-party negotiations in favor of the direct talks with the U.S. he has long sought. It will also dismay some in South Korea and Japan, which have their own hostages in North Korea and will wonder why Mr. Clinton couldn’t obtain their release as well.
If it turns out that if a new nuclear negotiation really was begun during Mr. Clinton’s visit, it will also send the signal to North Korea that the worse its behavior, the more it stands to gain from the U.S. And it will mean that Kim’s price will be even higher to spring the next American hostages….
& from former experts, John Bolton in the Washington Post (here):
…Former president Clinton was met at Pyongyang’s airport by notables led by Kim Kye Gwan, the North’s long-time chief nuclear negotiator, an unmistakable symbol of linkage. In Pyongyang’s view, the two reporters are pawns in the larger game of enhancing the regime’s legitimacy and gaining direct access to important U.S. figures…
What do we really know?
Well, it is highly unlikely that the Obama administration and the State Department did not know before hand that this was happening.
The NK dictator himself has been housing the two journalists in a guest house, instead of the prison labor camp where they were sentenced. Additionally, in order to travel to North Korea, State Department approval is required.
Based on those two facts, it appears that everyone knew what was happening and what the trip was for.
Beyond conjecture though, many news outlets have moved further to suggest that we have somehow weakened our bargaining position with North Korea for extending the visit from the former President. Additionally, since the first person to great Mr. Clinton was met by Kim Kye-gwan, North Korea’s top nuclear negotiator, there must be more to the story.
While it is certainly true that North Korea sees a high level visit from even a former President as a victory, Kim Kye-gwan was likely there as a fluent English speaker to serve as a translator.
His being there could potentially mean something more, but it’s unlikely it does mean more. Even if Mr. Clinton knew foreign policy topics would be up for discussion, there isn’t any reason to believe he would be allowed to actually negotiate any agreement.
It should also be clear that while Kim Jung Ill is a worthless tyrant, he is not irrational and therefore is aware of this as well.
Lastly, we know the US is seeking to negotiate with North Korea very differently than we have in the past. Our goal for some time now has been to force NK to the negotiating table to sign a treaty which will not be implemented in phases, but an all-or-nothing approach to minimize North Korea’s ability to get something, only to renege later.
North Korea on the other hand, wants diplomatic status in the international community and value even the appearance of high level talks as this leads them in that direction.
To demonstrate just how high the place perception on the value scale, see no further than the current head of the Special Envoy to NK. Nominated by President Obama, Stephen Bosworth is maintaining not only his new government job, but also retaining his university position as well.
To Kim Jung Ill, having a part-time diplomat trying to negotiate with his world power status country that is NK, is insulting.
So from all appearances and known facts with minor conjecture, it doesn’t seem as if anything was wrong with Obama’s approach.
North Korea received their high level visit, while the Obama administration can deny any linkage between Clinton & their administration. Two journalists who were going to face 12 years of potentially fatal hell, have been released to their families.
& this is a potential sign, though more information is needed, that back channel negotiations can start again, to hopefully minimize the nuclear threat NK can pose to the region.
This is how foreign policy works with “terrorist” regimes. While the US, under all Presidents claim they will never negotiate, we always do, as we have to deal with anyone capable of hurting the global economy and our allies.
If the journalists don’t like this because it runs counter to their current understanding of reality, I suggest they rethink their view of reality rather than put the Obama administration into a preassigned hole of being weak on foreign policy.
Categories: Foreign Policy, Politics
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Tags: Bill Clinton, Foreign Policy, Journalism, North Korea, Speculation
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